The Classic's 2012 - A review

                                                      Man of the classics season ... Tom Boonen.

So with the 2012 edition of Liege- Bastogne- Liege the classics season has to an end. That is pretty much it for the one day races, apart from San Sebastian in august, the World’s in September and the Giro d’Lombardia. It  has been an interesting and entertaining classics season, which has seen a dominant performance from Omega-Pharma-Quickstep (OPQS) in the cobbled classic’s and an impressive/unpredicted run by Astana in the hilly classics.

                                                              Team of the classics season ...

Apart from Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, in which Sep Vanmarcke stunned a lot of people by beating Tom Boonen, OPQS dominated the cobbled classics. The main rider in this domination was Tom Boonen who has had a brilliant season with his second Tour of Flanders- Paris Roubaix double, which put him up to 3 wins in the Tour of Flanders and a record equalling 4^th win in Paris Roubaix, matching the record of the legendry Roger De Vlaeminck. It was clear to see early in the season that Boonen had good form, winning the Tour of Qatar and scoring stage wins in Paris-Nice and the Tour de San Luis. The start of the classics season held the only surprise win in the cobbled classics this year with  Sep Vanmarcke having a breakthrough performance in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad to pip Boonen at the line surprising everyone including Boonen and Vanmarcke! Apart from this lap, in which Boonen went to early and didn’t anticipate Vanmarcke, his season was flawless. Wins in Paris–Roubaix, Tour of Flanders, Gent–Wevelgem and E3 Harelbeke have given him surely one fo the best seasons any classics rider has had. Aiding him in this achievement were his superlative team. With both Sylvain Chavanel and Niki Terpstra as potential co leaders alongside a number of other strong domestiques (Gert Steegmans etc), the OPQS team were at least a level above every other team. Indeed, Chavanel took victory at Three Days of De Panne, second in Dwars door Vlaanderen and 10^th in Flanders, whilst Terpstra took an impressive win from a long range (over 20 km) attack in Dwars door Vlaanderen, alongside 5^th and 6^th at Paris-Roubaix and Tour of Flanders respectively.

This all said even Boonen’s win in Paris-Roubaix would have made his and OPQS’s season. It was one of those legendry moments in cycling, a superhuman effort that will stand out in the history of this grand race. To attack from 53 km out is either a very stupid or brave thing to do, and to hold off the pursuit of the strong Team Sky was certainly impressive to watch. It was a good attack to win a record equalling 4^th victory.

One sourer note of this classics season was the absence of Cancellara from Paris-Roubaix, due to the quadruple fracture of his right collarbone sustained in the Tour of Flanders. He was having a strong season, with second in Milan-Sanremo, and impressive (and unlucky) performances in E3 Harelbeke, Gent–Wevelgem and Strade Bianche and was in good form. It would have been a good spectacle to see Cancellara and Boonen duelling whilst both were at their best.  

Now, to the hilly classics, in which I am including Milan-Sanremo for ease, although is chronologically before most of the cobbled classics. These saw a number of surprise winners, which made for good watching! The relatively poor form of Philippe Gilbert made these races wide open.

                                                                               Nibali's decisive attack

Milan-Sanremo, which is typically a sprinters race, was made much more interesting by Nibali and the Liquigas team who made the race extra hard to drop most of the sprinters on the mid stage climbs, including the strong favourite Mark Cavendish. When the race came to the Poggio, Nibali once again animated the race by putting in a strong acceleration. It was the decisive move of the race, but alas for Nibali he took Cancellara and Simon Gerrans with him.  There has been some debate as to whether Cancellara’s tactics were wrong. From my point of view I am not sure what else he could have done. Had he let up the riders behind would have caught up to the leading trio and he would have not won the sprint from that group. He, like Nibali, needed to get rid of them on the Poggio. Once he made his move he was somewhat stuck. There has also been debate about the perceived negative tactics of Simon Gerrans. The fact is that Gerrans did take a turn on the front, but was simply not strong enough to work with Cancellara, and he would have been surely dropped had he contributed much more. Gerrans won the sprint from the leading trio after the tricky descent and last couple of flat km, with Cancellara talking second and Nibali third. Gerrans was a surprise winner of this race (a theme of the classics season) and won it with his tactical ability. He spotted the decisive move by Nibali and indeed had been marking Nibali up the Poggio, he saved his energy and managed held onto Cancellara’s wheel for dear life (not an easy task!) until the end, where his explosive acceleration won him the race. This was an important victory for GreenEdge and Gerrans.

                                                             Gerrans winning

 The other performances of note in this race were those of Peter Sagan and John Degenkolb, 4^th and 5^th  respectively. Given the age of these riders and the difficulty of this edition, it bodes well for their future careers, I am certain they will come back to be on the podium and win this race in the future.

The next and indeed last big classics where the Ardennes classics, which saw a surprisingly strong performance from Astana. I say surprising but, with hindsight they had a strong squad, albeit without any top tier favourites. Riders like Gasparotto, Iglinskiy , Kišerlovski and Fofonov are all talented riders and indeed between them had a few one day wins before. I think one of the reasons Astana were so successful in the Ardennes classics this year was there strength in numbers. They may have not had the top favourites and riders with a number of big classics wins under their belt but they had 3-4 riders in the business end of the peloton in the closing km of all the Ardennes classics. This meant they could mark every move and put the other teams on the defensive. This was shown by the number of riders they had in the top 15 of each of the Ardennes races, 2 in AMG, 3 in LFW and 3 in L-B-L (taking the 1^st and 3^rd places on the podium!). Now to look at each of the races in turn...

                                                           Astana had a good season

AMG followed the familiar cycling formula of the early breakaway reeled in within the last 10 km.  We saw a brave attack from Oscar Freire which was ultimately futile, but entering none the less, I suspect the motive for it was as a recon for the worlds which will be held near this region. A large group came to the final climb, and Freire’s move made Gilbert’s situation much more difficult, with him having almost the sole responsibility (with Greg Van Avermaet helping for first part of climb) of chasing down Freire. This more than Gilberts form, was responsible for his poor placing, with Gilbert having to make a move from a long way out. Gasparotto timed his effort perfectly as he got the jump on Sagan who went too early. This was the end of Sagan’s classics season this year, but he can take a lot from it, he will certainly win many in the future and showed strong performances in MSR, AMG and the Tour of Flanders.

Onto La Flèche Wallonne, the only Ardennes classic that was won by a big favourite this year, with Joaquim Rodríguez at last taking a very well deserved classic’s win after so many podiums. It was nice to see Rodríguez rewarded at last and for the Katusha team to get the win after all the work that they contributed to Rodríguez’s classic’s ambitions. Ryder Hesjedal and Lars Petter Nordhaug made a brave effort to attack from 7 km out on the decent of the Côte de Villers-le-Bouillet (the penultimate climb). They gained a good gap, but they were kept in check by the Katusha team, the gap they gained just wasn’t big enough to survive the Mur de Huy. Rodiguez, as he has so many times before, just flew away on the steep gradients of the Mur de Huy to easily win this edition of LFW. Albasini impressed with his strong rider to gain second marking him as a man for the future in the Ardennes classic’s with the man of last year, Philippe Gilbert showing that he is still strong even when he isn’t at his best with a third place.

                                                                     Nibali going it alone

Last but not least was an entertaining 98^th edition of Liège–Bastogne–Liège. The hero of the show in this case was Vincenzo Nibali, who made the race with his solo attack from ~20 km out on the Côte de la Roche aux Faucons. Before this point it was looking like the favourites where going to spend the last 20 km looking at each other waiting for the others to make a move. Alas for Nibali, it was not to be thanks to a strong effort from Maxim Iglinsky to catch and pass Nibali to take a deserved win. There has been talk about Nibali’s tactics here but I think that he did the best he could given the race situation. The race wasn’t hard enough to drop a lot of key riders, meaning that there was a (relatively) big group of 10-20 riders approaching the final kilometres. In addition Nibali’s natural allies in such a move were the Schleck’s, who, quite frankly, rode a poor race. Nibali doesn’t have the explosive acceleration of many of the other favourites therefore needed to go from a way out. He almost succeeded as well, and indeed gained second place which is a big achievement in a race such as  L-B-L. He failed for a couple of reasons, he had a large group chasing, he seemed to have a hunger “bonk” and he was riding into a headwind. He built up a decent advantage, but with all the energy he used driving away into a head wind he left himself little for the final kilometres. Iglinsky and Astana, on the other hand rode a tactically perfect race, and in combination with his talent, this lead to Iglinsky’s (and Astana’s) victory. In the select group that had formed at the front of the race, there were 3 strong Astana riders, who could very conceivably win. They used their numbers to advantage, sending riders off the front to make the other riders work and dig into Nibali’s lead. The decisive move was by Rodriguez and Iglinsky, this combination of two riders management to bridge 20 or so seconds to Nibali, whilst using ½ the effort, and from only ~ 10 km out. Iglinsky surprisingly dropped Rodriguez on the Cote de Saint-Nicolas, which is prime Rodriguez territory. Using his talent and fresher legs, Iglinsky used a strong performance on the Cote de Saint-Nicolas to close the gap to Nibali to 7 seconds. Given the relative freshness of Iglinsky and Nibali’s crack the now inevitable catch happened at 1.3 km from the finish. Nibali valiantly pushed on to get second, whilst Iglinsky’s teammate Gasparotto, finished off a well timed effort to gain 3^rd place giving the Astana team 2 podium spots, rounding off a very good classic’s season for Astana. 

It was a good classic’s season for ...

Omega-Pharma-Quickstep – I’m not sure whether a team has ever dominated the cobbled classic’s like OPQS have this year. Boonen alone has had an awe inspiring season, and with his super-domestiques, Sylvain Chavanel and Niki Terpstra, almost won every race they entered. Boonen set two records, becoming the first man to win both the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix in the same season more than once and to equal the record for most Paris-Roubaix wins. Given Boonen’s form is this part of the season he could very well put in strong performances in the Olympic road race and World championships. Sylvain Chavanel’s only win was the Three Days of De Panne, but given that he was working for his team leader, this was understandable, he was also once again unlucky in Paris-Roubaix, with a puncture at an inopportune moment. However he showed that he has the talent to be considered a contender for these races. OPQS also showed that they have a classic’s man for the future, when Boonen is too old, with Niki Terpstra. OPQS season has already been amazing, which should help them in other races, with the pressure removed. In particular, they look like a very strong team for a Tour de France contender, which given that they have three riders who fall into this character is a very good thing. It also justifies there title as a super team . 

Greenedge – This has been a very good first season for this new team. Firstly, was Simon Gerrans win at Milan-Sanremo, which was very impressive given that he wasn’t even the top favourite from that team to win MSR (that was Matt Goss last year’s winner). He rode a tactically brilliant race and had the legs to finish it off. For a brand new team, winning a monument of cycling is impressive and encouraging. A lot of new teams have to wait a number of years to achieve such as feat. What was somewhat strange was Gerrans lack of form at the Ardennes classics, managing only two top twenty performances. However Gerran’s wasn’t the only rider in Greenedge who performed well, let’s not forget Michael Albasini, who after a number of top 10’s, managed to carry his good form from the Tour of the Basque country to gain 2^nd place in La Flèche Wallonne.  Greenedge’s strong performance in there maiden season will have certainly boosted the morale of the squad and seems to have gained them a title sponsor... 

Astana – This team had a brilliant classics season, with a very strong performance in the Ardennes classics. They weren’t particularly notable in the cobbled classics, with only Iglinsky’s attacks of real note. However it was a completely different story in the Ardennes classics. Despite having no top level favourites for these races, Astana managed to do very well, using their numbers, tactics and talent to achieve. In Gasparotto, Iglinsky and Kišerlovski they had three riders who could conceivably win, but weren’t favourites. In all the races they used their numbers to good advantage forcing the other teams to chase and out numbering the other teams in the final kilometres. In addition they got their tactics right, with Gasparotto and Iglinsky timing there effort perfectly in AGR and L-B-L respectively. They have gained some valuable world tour points and have taken some pressure off other riders in the squad which will help there year. 

It was a mixed classic’s season for ...

Katshua/Rodriguez – They both got there win, at La Fleche Wallonne, but I can’t help thinking, given their strength and Gilbert’s weakness that they could have taken L-B-L as well.

Nibali/ Liquigas  – Liquigas didn’t get a win in this classics season but that misses the point (I think). They posted some very strong results, with 3 in the top 10 of Milan-Sanremo, including 3^rd and 4^th (Nibali, Sagan), a 5^th in the Tour of Flanders, a 3^rd a LFW and 2^nd at L-B-L. Sagan has showed that his prestigious talent can translate straight into the highest levels of cycling. He managed 4^th in his first edition of MSR and 3^rd in LFW, an impressive result. With the form he showed he could have won, alas his inexperience showed with a miss timed effort. Another impressive performance from Sagan was in the Tour of Flanders, where his 5^th place doesn’t tell the whole story, he alone of that group actually tried to hunt down the leading trio, and he made a good effort of it. Nibali, showed his class as a rider with his performances in MSR and L-B-L, in both cases he came close. Nevertheless he can take heart from his performances, which have won him many new fans, and show that he is that rarest of things these days, a GC rider who races from February to October. He attempts to win every race he enters and will risk everything for 1^st. I am sure that one day Nibali will win L-B-L.

BMC  – It is tempting to say that BMC had a poor classics season, but I don’t think that is fair. What is certainly true is that there big two classics signings, Thor Hushovd and Philippe Gilbert didn’t perform as well as might have been expected. Hushovd has been having a very poor season, with no results of note. Gilbert has had a mixed season thus far with crashes and health problems marring his season. He was unlucky in MSR with an inopportune crash, and his form wasn’t present for the cobbled classics. He put in decent performances in the Ardennes, resulting in a 3^rd place at LFW. In addition BMC showed the breadth of talent they have with Greg Van Avermaet and Ballan getting good results, indeed Ballan got 3^rd in both the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. So I think it is fair to say that BMC got a reasonable set of results from the classics, with a good haul of WT points, despite the lack of form of their big classic stars, but with no wins.

Garmin-Barracuda 

They got a win in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, with Sep Vanmarcke showing he is a man for the future. But otherwise a mixed bag, with no other wins, and whilst Dan Martin put in some decent performances in the Ardennes classics, didn’t manage to crack the podium.

It was a poor classic’s season for ...

Radioshack-Nissan-Trek – Part of this was of their making, part was bad luck. This team’s big man for the classics and indeed the only rider who had any success at all, was Fabian Cancellara, who crashed in the Tour of Flanders, leading to a quadruple fracture of his collarbone. Cancellara seemed to be in good form and it was a real shame that he was ruled out of many of the classics, for himself, for the team, and for the fans. That said before the unfortunate incident he managed to get a couple of results with a win at Strade Bianche, and a second place at MSR, with strong performances at E3 Harelbeke and Gent–Wevelgem. With there big favourite ruled out R-N-T, were in disarray, with no other riders to fill Cancellara’s shoes. This lead to poor results in the cobbled classics. However, given the strength of the team they should have bounced back in the Ardennes classics, but they depended on the Schleck’s whose form just wasn’t present. In fact the Schleck’s performances were a major disappoint for fans who wanted to see good racing. In addtion R-N-T were not able to bring any of the other talent in there rooster to the fore. Where was Oliver Zaugg, who showed he can win these sort of races with his performance in the tour of Lombardy last year or Chris Horner who had decent form in Tirreno–Adriatico or Jakob Fuglsang (although to be fair maybe they were saving him for the Giro) who has done well in the Ardennes in the past. It would seem that Zaugg wasn’t at the Ardennes (why ?) and Horner’s legs seemed to be missing throughout. With such abundant talent they should have made a bigger impact and questions have to be asked of the riders and of the management who should be building the riders form for such races. This doesn’t bode well for the Tour de France. 

Team Sky – Maybe a bit harsh, but they only managed a couple of low level wins despite having a very strong squad. It is the case that Team Sky have built a strong squad for stage races and grand tours, but they haven’t managed to translate that into the classics. They were unfortunate in MSR, where Cavendish was the favourite due to his strong form in the early part of the year and his previous form in the race. Alas for Cav and Sky he had a bad day.  In the other races they weren’t able to finish off strong team performances with a win. In fact I would strongly question their tactics in both the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, in which there weren’t able to bring any advantage to their big numbers. In the Tour of Flanders they stupidly chased down a leading group containing one of their best riders (Flecha) for what would seem like the benefit of Boasson-Hagen. Then when the course became difficult another lead group formed without ANY sky riders ! In fact the only people who benifited where Vacansoleil-DCM who didn’t have a rider in the first group beforehand but did in the second lead group! It was from this second lead group that the winners came. In Paris-Roubaix they had 4 riders in the select group of favourites and they didn’t manage to catch Boonen despite having 53 km to do so. Given their strength it would be reasonable expect at least a podium. In the Ardennes classics, they didn’t have any top level favourites and they seemed to used the races as preparation for the future. They developed the talent of their developing riders such as Uran, Henao and Nordhaug, so they got something from these races.

Team Saxo Bank – Not many top 20 results, let alone top 10’s and podiums. They will need to do better if they are to stay in world tour. 

Riders who impressed, 

Diego Ulissi – He hasn’t been mentioned that much in this article or in the press so far which is a shame I think. He managed a decent result at LFW with 9^th place. Given his tender age of 22 and the fact he already has a Giro Giro d'Italia win, he could be a man for the future for these races.

Peter Sagan – To be fair this is hardly a revelation, he has been touted as a major talent for a few years now despite his very young age (22), but he has converted the hype into real results at cycling’s highest level. He is certain to win a number of classics in the future and may be one of the greatest classics riders of all time by the end of his career.

Jelle Vanedert – Not a young rider I admit, but he is still developing (cyclist don’t tend to hit physical peak until 28/29 and performance peak until 30). He showed strong form as a climber in last year’s Tour de France and he converted his previous decent results in AGR into a string of good results across the Ardennes, with 2^nd, 4^th and 10^th in AGR, LFW and L-B-L respectively.

Michael Albasini – Has had a good season and has capped good performances in the Ardennes classics with a breakthrough performance this year to gain 2^nd in LFW.

Thomas Voeckler – Performed decently in AGR and L-B-L (his team weren’t in LFW) showing that his form in 2011 that took him to 4^th in the Tour de France was no fluke. With two near podiums (4^th and 5^th in L-B-L and AGR) and bad luck it was a very strong week for him.

Liège-Bastogne-Liège, "La Doyenne" -2012

Well due to a hectic schedule blogging has been much lighter than I would have liked over the past weeks. We have had an entertaining classics season that moved last week into the hilly classics (from the cobbled classics". We saw OPQS dominate the cobbles and no one dominant force in hilly classics so far. However we are coming to the grand finale of the classics season with Liège-Bastogne-Liège, " La Doyenne", the oldest of the one day races, having first been held in 1892 and now in its 98th edition. One of the "monuments" of cycling it is certainly prestigious and it ends the Ardennes week of hilly classics (the other two being the Amstel Gold race (AGR) and La Fleche Wallone (LFW)). It is the most interesting of these races for its extra level of difficulty, which can often see the decisive move made before the finale climb to the finish line. The amount and difficulty of the climbing in Liège-Bastogne-Liège makes it a race that is within the skill sets of the classic's specialist such as Philippe Gilbert and the GT contenders such as Andy Schlek. This year we have not seen a repeat of Gilbert's dominant 2011 performances, and the race is quite open with the possibility for a surprise winner (such as Enrico Gasparotto in last Sundays Amstel Gold Race). I will run thought the favourites a bit later in the post, first however lets take a look at the ...

Course

The course is a beast, with Liège–Bastogne–Liège often being called the toughest classic. It is 257 km with 12 categorised climbs. The first 150 km or so involves a rolling course from Liège to Bastogne (hence the name) that serves to put a good few km in the legs of the riders before the really tough part begins, this first 150 km involves 2 of the categorised climbs. After 160 (not easy) km the race starts in earnest with the Côte de Wanne, 2,7 km at 7.0 %, after this the climbs come thick and fast with the other 9 in the next 97 km. I will list these below, they tend to get steeper as the race goes on from 6.9% at the Côte de la Haute-Levée rising to 11.1 % on the Côte de Saint-Nicolas. The climbs are usually about 2 km long ranging from 1 km to 4 km. All of this serves to separate the wheat from the chaff, with smallish (sub 20) groups of riders being able to contest the finishing climbs, unlike AMG and LFW were typically bigger groups arrive at the finishing climb. It also means that stamina is very important leading to riders such as Andy Schleck having a good chance of winning (which he did in 2009). 

The decisive move of the race can often be from a way out ( km), with last years move coming from 20 km out on a climb. The Côte de la Roche aux Faucons and Côte de Saint-Nicolas climbs, 20 km and 5 km from the finish respectively provide excellent spring boards for long range attacks to favour riders such as Andy Schleck, Vincenzo Nibali etc. 

Favourites

This is a hard choice as there are a number of favourites with no outstanding candidates.

*****

  Joaquin Rodríguez 

  Joaquin "Purtio" Rodríguez had his well deserved first classics win last Wednesday after so many near misses (a good number of podiums), which can only boost his confidence before this race. He has good form at the moment and his team, Katusha, are strong as they have showed in the last week with riders such as Óscar Freire Daniel Moreno and Yuri Trofimov to assist him. He is surely the biggest favourite to win this race. He has podiumed in this race before hand with a second place in 2009. He and his team will need to be on top form and be alert if he is to win this race and they will need to shut down any long range attacks or alternatively Joaquin Rodríguez will need to attack. Given his form at the moment I guess they will get little help from the other teams. 

 ****

 Philippe Gilbert

Has had a relativity (compared to 2011, still had some decent results) disappointing   season this year, being plagued with bad form and luck with dental problems hampering his cobbled classics campaign and a crash spoiling his Milan- Sanremo. He has however been building his form throughout the week at AGR and LFW with improving performances, and with those races in his legs, he could have the perfect form for a consecutive win of this race. He has a decent team, although given the rooster of BMC maybe not as strong as it could be. Gilbert has some options when it comes to this race with the ability to win from a group or go out from a long range attack. His previous form though will mean that he will be chased and that other potential breakaway riders may not help him in a brake away.  

Damiano Cunego

Cunego's last classic's win was a while ago in 2008, his last L-B-L podium was in 2006 and his last classics podium was in 2009, he also wasn’t too impressive in the AGR at 31st across the line 47 seconds back. However, he is a rider with pedigree and his focus this year has been on another classics victory and the worlds. He has had a decent season so far with a couple of top 10's in world tour stage races (4th in Tour of the Basque Country and 6th in Volta a Catalunya) and in the last week has been in his native Italy racing in the Giro del Trentino, in which he performed well coming second overall and winning a stage. He thinks that riding this race is the best preparation for L-B-L and it has certainly put a good few climbing km in his legs which should help. He has a strong team as well with Michele Scarponi, Diego Ulissi (who scored an impressive top 10 at LFW) and Przemysław Niemiec to aid him. Much like the previous two he can win from a group at the end or an attack.

***

Vincenzo Nibali

He has a mixed last week of racing with a fairly inconspicuous performance at AGR and a decent top 10 position at LFW, which would suggest that he was using those races as a warm up for the big one. That makes sense given that L-B-L suits his skill set better than AGR and LFW. He has had an excellent season so far with a number of impressive results such as his overall win of Tirreno-Adriatico, his 3^rd place in Milan- Sanremo and his first win coming in February’s Tour of Oman. All of this indicates his form this year and would suggest good things for this L-B-L. He previous form in the classics has been decent with number of top 10’s in Milan –Sanremo, L-B-L, and the Giro di Lombardia, however he has never been able to pull off a podium in the hilly classics. Given his Palmarès, he certainly has the talent and he showed his strength in last year’s Giro di Lombardia with a brave attack from ~ 60 km out. He will need to think a bit more tactically if he is to win this race, but his willingness to attack and ability very well could, if he times it right win him the race.  It will help his cause if another team (and/or the Liqiugas team) make the race hard to isolate the other favourites. 

Frank / Andy Schleck 

I put both the Schleck brothers here because either could win. The designated team leader is Frank, but Andy’s form looked good at LFW and he is a previous winner it his race in 2009 and 3^rd in 2011. Frank has podiumed twice in this race with 2^nd in 2011 and 3^rd in 2007, with another couple of top 10’s. Neither has really done anything of note this season, with pretty lacklustre performances in the stage races they have done so far. However, this is their first target of the season being along with the Tour there big aims for the season. Andy has done a good deal of domestique work for his brother in the last week and has looked good. Frank has had a decent build up to L-B-L with 12^th and 20^th positions in AGR and LFW respectively. Given that these two aren’t that suited to Frank those are good performances and indicate a good preparation for L-B-L. The extra difficulty involved with L-B-L will play into the hands of the brothers. To compound this they will need to take advantage of the strength of their team to make the race very hard and isolate the other favourites. The best chance for either of the brothers to win is to go from the Côte de la Roche aux Faucons about 20 km out, it was this tactic that lead to Andy’s win in 2009 and both there podiums last year. Andy’s win in 2009 showed how to win, whereas the brother results in 2011 showed how to throw the race away. If they do go they have to be careful who they take with them such as Gilbert/ Rodríguez, and if there are other rider present play a much better tactical game than last year, where they gifted Gilbert through poor tactics. They will have to alternate attacks and to keep attacking to drop riders such as Gilbert. 

Samuel Sanchez  

 Having another good season with his win in the GC of the Tour of the Basque country. He hasnt won a classic thus far in his career, indeed the big one day race win on his Palmares is the 2008 olympic win. His form is good and he is a complete bike rider, given that there is no strong favorite for this race it could be his day. His team is strong and suited to the terrian.

**

Simon Gerrans

Alejandro Valverde

Ryder Hesjedal

Astana

Thomas Voeckler

Jelle Vanendert

Bauke Mollema

*

Lars Petter Nordhaug

Johnny Hoogerland

Dan Martin

Chris Anker Sørensen

Lieuwe Westra (dark horse)

Paris- Roubaix 2012 – “The Hell of the North”

So we are well into the classic season now, with the third (out of 5) monuments happening this weekend and with Paris-Roubaix we will move from the "cobbled" classics to the "hilly" classics. It has been an entertaining classics season so far, with plenty of attacks and tension. Paris-Roubaix is considered to be one of if not the most prodigious of the one day cycling races (the classics) and has throughout its 116 year history (this is the 110 edition) earned the nickname “the Hell of the North”. Paris-Roubaix consists of a 257.5km journey from Compiègne ( the race hasn’t started in Paris since 1965) and make its way to Roubaix on the French-Belgium border (right next to Lille) and it does so via 27 cobbled sections, which make the race so difficult/ special. It is in these sections that the race is blown apart and the men are separated from the boys, to gain a good position from these section you need good bike handling skill, luck and to be ideally in the top 10-20 riders at the beginning of the section (to minimise the probability of being caught behind or in a crash). In particular the Arenberg forest stretch is key, for although the race is (usually) not won by this point it is very much the case that it can be decisively lost at this point. 

The conditions at Paris- Roubaix usually swing between two gruelling extremes. If it is dry (and usually therefore sunny) the conditions are very dusty, which is exacerbated by the vehicles and riders on the route. If it is wet, it is usually extremely muddy with riders being caked in mud. Both of the above make for difficult racing and add another level of challenge to win this race.

So onto the 2012 edition, there are no changes to the route this year (although there was talk of taking out the Arenberg forest section depending on conditions) unlike the other cobbled monument (the Tour of Flanders). I will list the favourites below and rank them using a star system with 5 * being top favourite and one * being an outside chance. In summary I think it is fair to say that Tom Boonen is the man of the moment especially with Cancellara out due to injury, with his team omega pharma quickstep being the team of the moment, with 3 contenders who could win this race. Aside from Tom Boonen, Pozzato and Ballan looked good in the Tour of Flanders and Vanmarcke has looked good this season. If for any reason Boonen is out of contention then it will become a very open (and very exciting) race.

The Favourites

Tom Boonen *****

The only 5* favourite I have for this edition of Paris-Roubaix, and with good reason. It is fair to say that Boonen has been on fire this season, notching up a series of prestigious wins in the classics, along with some decent stage wins (such as his win in Paris-Nice). In addition he looked very strong in last weekend’s Tour of Flanders taking an impressive win. With his team the support that his very powerful omega-pharma quickstep can provide and with the only other possible 5* favourite Cancellara out due to a broken collarbone (fractured in 4 places) he is the overwhelming favourite to win. That said, a degree of luck is still required to win Paris-Roubaix no matter how good/ prepared you are, one wrong move, and Boonen could easily crash and end up like Cancellara. 

Filippo Pozzato ****

Pozzato has had somewhat a renaissance this year, after his lacklustre 2011. The change of team seems to have helped with his move from Team Katusha to the Pro-Continental Farnese Vini-Selle Italia. He looked good in the Tour of Flanders last week, with a couple of strong attacks and his bridging to Ballan (dragging along with him Boonen), to form the decisive move of the race. Indeed some wise commentators said he looked strong than Boonen, and his tactics were criticised, that said Pozzato is bullish, with the strong belief that he can beat Boonen in the sprint. He has past from in this race, with his 2009 second place, which incidentally Boonen won, and his previous record in the classics. I think Pozzato will try a couple of big attacks within the last 30 km in order to drop the other favourites and that would seem to be his best bet for a win, although if he is present in a group at the end he can sprint, though I don’t think he will win this way (he will then be a good bet for the podium). 

Alessandro Ballan ****

Like his compatriot above, he showed good form in last week’s Tour Flanders, with his attack forming the decisive move of the race. He will need to attack again in this race to win/podium as his sprint is not amongst the strongest of the favourites. He has podiumed in the race on a couple of occasions (2006, 2008) and given his form this year could (with a bit of luck) do so again. 

Sep Vanmarcke ****

Vanmarcke has had a good season so far, showing his potential as a future monument winner. Indeed at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, the 23 year old stunned a lot of people with his sprint that denied Boonen the victory. He has been in the mix in many of the classics and the Tour of Flanders. With Garmin, he has a strong team to back him and he can play the tactical game. 

Sylvain Chavanel/ Niki Terpstra ****

I have grouped these two riders together due to the fact that they are both on the omega-pharma quickstep team, and therefore their main priority will be to serve Boonen. It speaks volumes about the strength of the omega-pharma quickstep team that both can be considered strong favourites, and it gives the OPQS team a lot of options tactically. Both of these riders will be used to break the race up and then attack, forcing the other teams/favourites to case them down. Both of these riders have the ability and form to attack within the last 20 -30 km and solo to the finish or a least get a good gap before being caught. Both of these riders have had big victories so far in 2012, in addition to supporting Boonen's numerous victories.

Thor Hushovd ***

Thor is here because of his talent alone, he has had an awful 2012 so far and his recent form would suggest that he will be lucky to top 10 let alone win/podium this race. However given his past form in this race (a 2^nd place in 2010 and 3^rd in 2009) and his strengths as a rider, he must be considered. He was unlucky last year due to the fact that he was such a strong favourite, he was strongly marked and that his team mate Vansummeren was leading and therefore he couldn’t attack. Indeed a nice monument win is the only notable absence in   Hushovd’s Palmares, which includes amongst other achievements, the World champions jersey and the TDF green jersey. He has come close in both Milan-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix. This year there is slightly less presuure on Thor given his recent form and the fact that Ballan (both are on same team) is also a favourite for this race, in addition he has a strong team including George Hincapie to support him. 

Juan Antonio Flecha***

Has been a consistently strong classics performer for the last 10 or so years, he has notched up a number of podiums in this race before. He never seems to be able to etch out a win, and his form hasn’t been particularly strong/weak this year. 

George Hincapie**

In previous years he would have been a much stronger favoite for this race. Alas, age is starting to take its toll on this stalwart of cycling as participates in his 18^th season as a pro. I would love it if he won this year, which may be his last and he has been close on a number of previous occasions, in fact I think it’s fair to say he is the best cyclist of the last 10 years not to win this race. That said, his primary duties this year will be to use his vast experience and his strength to support Ballan/ Hushovd in their ambitions. 

Edvald Boasson Hagen **

Hagen certainly has the “engine” to win this race, with talent in spades, however since his move to Sky he hasn’t been able to convert his supreme talent to being able to win in the biggest events in cycling. One of these years he will breakthrough and win big and this maybe the year, that said looked weak in the Tour of Flanders.

Luca Paolini **  - Looked strong in the Tour of Flanders

Stijn Devolder **
John Degenkolb ** - Very talent youngster, showed strenght in Milan-Sanremo, could be darkhorse for podium

Johan Van Summeren **

Lars Bak *
Lars Boom *
Stuart O'Grady *
 Daniel Oss *

Bernie Eisel *