The Key Stages and possible unexpected Key Stages

The Key Stages and possible unexpected Key Stages of the 2012 Tour de France

There are a number of stages in this year’s TDF that will decide the overall. The most obvious are the two time trials. These are fairly straightforward; the first is a hilly affair, which should see Wiggins put good time into his rivals. The second is a long one, 53.5 km and it is at the end of the race, so stamina and endurance over the three weeks will have an effect, possibly limiting the time Wiggins/Evans will take out of the others. These stages aren’t too hard to analysis; it will come to who has the most power and who is freshest after after almost three weeks of hard racing.

Stage 1, Stage 3 and Stage 4: The TDF not be won on these day, but it could be lost. These stages are not typical of the first week of a TDF, they are more classic like covering hilly terrain. Valuable seconds could be lost on the climb to the stage 1 finish in Seraing. Stage 3 could also see GC contenders losing valuable time, a well placed attack on the final climb the Côte du Mont Lambert, maybe from Nibali/Evans etc, followed by an aggressive descent could cause mayhem. The GC contenders will need to be attentive. Stage 4 closely follows the coast for the first half, therefore GC riders will need to be weary for splits due to the crosswinds. Favourites can lose minutes if the peloton splits due to cross winds.  Even if the peloton manages to reform it is vital energy that would have been wasted for no gain. The GC riders will need to be attentive to avoid losing possibly crucial seconds in these stages.

Stage 7: The race for the GC begins here. This climb will not win the TDF, but could lose it. This stage will be the first test of the contenders abilities and we will see who is in contention. Some pundits think that the riding will be mostly defensive. I disagree, this stage is perfect for explosive (or petrol) climbers such as Frank Schleck and Samuel Sanchez. It is a relatively easy mountain stage with two cat three climbs before the final ramp. If the aforementioned riders are to do well, they will need to attack here. The final climb is perfect for explosive (or petrol) climbers for the following two reasons; it is relatively short, at 5.5 km and it is steep. This means that there won’t be the time for steadier (diesel) climbers such as Wiggins, Evans and Nibali (with lower acceleration) to grind their way back. Having seen Schleck’s form in the Tour de Sussie, I think that he is very likely to put in a strong attack. Doing so could gain up to 1-2 minutes, valuable time. Team Sky will try to strangle any attacks, so any rider who wishes to attack will need to be in a good position at the foot of the climb. However, it would not be unusual if the GC contenders spent this climb watching and testing each other, saving their energy for later in the race. We could see a couple GC contenders out of the running on this stage.

                                                                     from the ASO

Stage 8: This stage should be non decisive. However, it is tough, and it has a tasty cat. 1 climb within the last 20 km, followed by a descent. It reminds me of stage 6 in last year’s Vuelta. Given the importance of taking time off the TT specialists and the descending weakness of some of the GC contenders I would not be surprised to see Liqiugas-Cannondale, possible joined by Evans, Sanchez and Hesjedal, try something on the descent here. It probably won’t work, but if it does could gain them valuable seconds, plus a stage win (probably for Peter Sagan). 

                                                                 from the ASO

Stage 10: The stage profile below shows that this is a tough stage, the Grand Colombier makes its overdue debut in the TDF. It is a beast of a climb, 18 km at an average of 6.9 %. The profile of the Grand Colombier is also below

                                                                    from climbbybike.com

This is the stage after the TT, it will be very clear by now who needs to claw back time. This is a mountain stage, but a very neutral one if no attacks are made. There are other harder, more decisive mountain stages to come, and this is a hard stage, so the GC contenders may get there team to ride tempo (at a high pace) to crack any of the weaker contenders during the stage, the weaker contenders could make their way back, but will waste energy to do so. This is what the conventional wisdom would say. However, if you look at the profile, a GC rider who is a good climber and descender could take good time today (Evans, Sanchez, Nibali). Even Frank Schleck could take good time today, taking time on the climbs and staying neutral/losing little time on the descents. If a GC contender attacks, it could cause all hell to break lose. 

                                                                       from the ASO

Stage 11: Another key mountain stage, this time however it is a standard TDF mountain stage with the legendry and commonly used col de la Madeleine and the Croix de Fer. It is a very tough stage with four climbs, two HC (beyond categorisation), one cat. 2 and one cat.1. The climbers will need to attack today to gain valuable seconds. Given the difficulty of the stage I doubt there will be any long range attacks, but we could be surprised.  If we were to see a long range attack it would come on the Croix de Fer. The finish stage is a mountain top finish on the La Toussuire. This is a long steady climb, 19 km at an average of 6 %, with a max gradient of 8.8%. This climb is perfectly suits to Bradley Wiggins, as we saw in the 2011 Vuelta, he can set a high steady pace, effectively time trialling up the mountain. He will have his strong Team Sky teammates such as Richie Porte, Michael Rogers and Chris Froome to aide him in this. I suspect taht attacking on this climb will be difficult due to the pace set by Team Sky. If we are to see attacks they will probably come in three forms; a long range attack on the Croix de Fer, a long range attack on the technical descent of the Mollard or a attack in the last 2-3 km of the Toussuire. The most plasubale is an attack in the last km of the Toussuire. By the end of today we will have a good idea of the top 10 and the podium. 

                                                                            from the ASO

Stage 16: The penultimate mountain stage, this is a stage designed to force climbers to attack from a long way out. It should be special, and is certainly one to watch. It features four classic Pyrenean climbs, steeped in TDF history. The Aubisque, the Tourmalet, the Col d’Aspin and the Peyresourde, two HC climbs and two cat.1 climbs, the stage finishes after a hair raising descent from the summit of the Peyresourde to Bagnères-de-Luchon, finishing at the foot of the descent. This is a stage that strongly favours Nibali and Sanchez. Given the profile of the stage we could see attacks as early as the Tourmalet, although the safest option would be on the Peyresourde. Wiggins and Evans, plus their respective teams, should be able to handle these climbs well enough if this stage is rode in traditional fashion (i.e. attacks left to the Peyresourde). Therefore to crack these riders a number of early attacks will be needed, given the final mountain stage and the TT, some riders may have no other choice. Another factor to be considered at this stage is fatigue, the riders will be tired by now, those who have a little bit extra in the tank could take strong gains. 

                                                                       from the ASO

Stage 17: The Final mountain stage, a mountain top finish, into Peyresourde again. This is a stage more suited to pure climbers who want to go on a long range attack (as opposed to riders who are good climbers and good descenders).  The Port de Balès looks good for such an attack, due to its difficultly. It is 18.87 km at an average of 6.3 %, but more importantly it has a number of steep ramps, ideal for an attack and for the pure climbers to put time into Evans and Wiggins. The stage finishes on a double summit of the Peyresourde, the first part climbs using the standard TDF route to Peyresourde, the summit of this is 6 km from the finish, there is then a short descent and an ascent to the finish. This looks ideal for a late attack. After this stage, the only important stage is the relatively straightforward TT stage, the podium and top 10 should be easy to predict after stage 17, although the order within the podium and top ten not so much. 

                                                                      from the ASO

Tour de France Information

Hello all, this is a post to direct you to the TDF coverage here, and in other places.

My contribution is my comprehensive preview post, covering the general race info (such as the jerseys and how they are award), a general overview of the course, and a in depth analysis of the contenders for the main competitions. Another post should come out very soon on riders to watch in terms of stage wins and a couple of posts of key stages of the Tour de France in terms of the overall competition.

I will post links here to good sources for understanding and viewing the Tour de France

Glossary: http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/tour-de-france-glossary

There are many terms used in cycling to describe the race, and to newcomers this can seem like a massive wall of jargon. These terms have come about naturally throughout the 10o year plus history of cycling from several different languages (French, Italian, Spanish, Flemish, Dutch, Basque, English and more), including a number of dialects.  This link provides a comprehensive overview of the jargon used in cycling and what it means.

How cycle racing works:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2005/07/how_do_cycling_teams_work.html

Cycling is a very unique sport, due to the nature of it and due to its history. It is one of the few main sports not to have originated in the UK, and for most of its history it has been an exclusively continental European sport. In addition, the extreme demands of cycling make it quite different from say running. For all these reasons cycling can seem very alien and hard to understand. This link explains well the tactics and the reasons for these tactics.

TV Coverage: The Tour de France is covered extensively by TV in the UK. ITV4 will be showing every stage live, plus hour long highlights at 19:00. The stages will be on ITV4 every day at 14:00-17:30 (sometimes later), these times will change when the race enters the mountains (starting earlier and ending later). The ITV 4 coverage is very good, it is very entertaining and informative, with good features and good explanation of how cycling works. ITV4 have even more coverage on their website, with a number of interviews, features and sections on the history of the TDF etc:

http://www.itv.com/tourdefrance/
http://www.itv.com/ - to stream live

In addition there is comprehensive coverage from Eurosport, including the option to watch the TDF in HD and online (if you subscribe for £3-5 per month). The Eurosport is a bit more “hardcore”, with no features, and the commentators go into great detail/ So it is probably more suited to people familiar with cycling. The commentary is at a slighter higher level than ITV 4 with very strong analysis, especially from Sean Kelly, a cycling legend who can read a race very well and has had a wealth of experience at the highest level of cycling. In addition they often get good interviews due to the fact that Eurosport is a European wide broadcaster of cycling and can get interviews from all riders, which the commentators can translate.

Eurosport have a decent TDF online presence here:
http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/cycling/tour-de-france/

Online in-depth news coverage/ analysis:

If you get really into the TDF/ cycling general these links are brilliant. Cycling news is the best for up to date news, including riders perspectives on the race (as most of these interviews/ coverage is done by foreign media, which cycling news translate). Cycling news also has some analysis, either by staff, or guest blogs from ex-pros. It also hosts blogs by riders (including some big names) in the TDF (and other races) providing there insight into the race.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/

 Velonews and Velonation are good for in depth features about cycling, including good analysis of the race progression.

http://www.velonation.com/

http://velonews.competitor.com/

Behind the scenes info/ in-depth analysis: The inner ring is the best place for this, offering insightful information even for those with a very good knowledge of cycling.

http://inrng.com/

A Preview of the 2012 Tour de France

So it is that time already, La Grande Boucle is almost upon us! This is the 99^th edition of this resplendent, beautiful, gruelling and epic race, the biggest race and the greatest price in cycling. This is one of, if not the most gruelling events in sport, with 3 weeks of lung busting riding, up and down mighty alpine and Pyrenean mountains, across vast swathes of French countryside though sun, wind, rain and snow. Almost all the legends of cycling have done battle in this race, many winning stages or the overall.

This year’s edition is already looking like it will be a classic edition, one of the most open for a decade and maybe of all time. This is a course designed to promote epic racing from the days of Merckx, Antequil and Coppi. This has been achieved in a number of ways. First, carrying on from the trend established in the last few years, in all the GTs (Grand Tours), the TDF has replaced some of the usual flat sprinting stages with classic style stages. The rolling terrain in stages 2, 3, 5 and 7 may well create the opportunities for contenders to attack early on, with a good chance a breakaway will succeed to win a stage. In addition, there are 101 km in time trial stages this year, this is roughly twice the number for the last couple of Tours. Many of the favourites will lose minutes in these kilometres and therefore will have to attack in the mountains to regain time if they hope to win/podium/ top 10. There are only 3 mountain top finishes (MTF) this year, however don’t let this fall you. There is one more climb this year than last year’s route, which itself considered very mountainous. New climbs have been added to the route this year, and they look hard, with steeper gradients than normal for TDF climbs. All of this will help the climbers. In addition, there are a number of very technical, twisty descents in this year’s TDF, with stage 16 into Bagnères-de-Luchon finishing at the bottom of one of these. These could provide a very strong springboard for a number of the overall contenders to attack, such as Evans and Nibali.

 Let us not forgot the other classifications, of which there are three (main ones), the points jersey (Green), the mountains Jersey (red polka dots on white background) and the best young rider (white). I will discuss each of these below. All of these competitions look like they will be fiercely fought for this year, which will provide an even more epic race.
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The Jerseys

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Above is shown the Yellow jersey (maillot jaune), which will be the goal for the overall contenders at the end of the three weeks. It is awarded to the rider with the lowest cumulative time, so the rider who has covered the course the quickest time at that point in the race. Even to wear this jersey for a day or two is a great honour in cycling, the Yellow jersey is often worn by non contenders in the first week of the race. Le Coq Sportif will be making the jerseys (instead of Nike), for first time in over 2 decades.

The Green (points) Jersey competition, awarded to the rider who gains the most points (nominally a sprinters Jersey in the TDF).  The points are awarded at the end of stages and a certain point along the road. Last year’s winner Mark Cavendish, will face stiff competition from Peter Sagan who is in excellent form and who is much better at climbing than Cavendish. I will discuss other contenders below. It looks like it will be an exciting completion, with a close end result decided on the final day very plausible.

The King of the Mountains Polka dot jersey is award to the rider who gains the most King of the Mountains points. These points are awarded on the summit of various climbs. The climbs fall into 5 categories, the hardest of these is the HC category (HC stands for beyond classification), with the others classed as 1^st - 4^th, with 1^st the second hardest and 4^th the easiest. The category is judged by the length and gradient of the climb. This points system was changed last year to favour riders who were better climbers, with more points given to MTF’s, as the last climb also offers double points this means that the  Polka dot jersey is likely to be won by one of the contenders for the overall.

The White Jersey competition is for riders born in 1987 or later. It is identical to the Yellow jersey apart from this aspect.

Other

Combativity award/ Most aggressive Rider

Is an award is given to the rider deemed to have been the “most aggressive” in a stage, which means a rider who has attacked/ been in a breakaway/ made and big and impressive effort. This award is judged by a panel, consisting of Journalists, Tour organisers (including some ex riders). The reward is a cash prize and the honour of having a white race number on a red background the next day. At the end of a TDF a Super-Combativity is given to the rider deemed to have been the most aggressive over the three weeks. 

Best team

Award to the “quickest” team, this is award daily and at the end of the TDF. The quickness of the team is decided by adding the times of the three best riders. Like the Combativity award the best team is shown by race numbers with black number on a yellow background.

“Lanterne Rouge”

This isn’t an official completion, but is nevertheless one that is noted, and in its own strange way, prestigious. The Lanterne Rouge is “awarded” to the last rider in the race. The rider is often remembered and given appearance money at the after TDF Criteriums, plus sometime extra sponsorship money. There have been multiple winners of the “Lanterne Rouge” the most recent being Wim Vansevenant who won this dubious honour three times in a row from 2006 ! It has also not been unknown for riders to contest this competition. 

Souvenir Jacques Goddet

A cash prize awarded to the rider who is the first to the summit of the highest mountain in that years TDF. This year it will be awarded on the legendry Col du Tourmalet.

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The Contenders for the General Classification (yellow jersey)

Preamble

I will use the star system that I used in the Giro, with 5 stars being top favourite and 1 star being an outside hope. This time I will also be putting the range of positions I think the favourite is capable off. Roughly speaking a 5* rider will be a certain podium/win, 4* a strong contender for podium and possible chance of winning and a very probable top 5, 3* a certain top 10, 2* a probable top ten and 1* a dark horse for top 10. Given the course this year, a wide range of skills are need to win/do well in this TDF and bravery could be very well rewarded. 

Bradley Wiggins *****

My, along with a number of other commentators, top favourite. The main reason for this are the number of time trialling kilometres in this year’s tour, this is a discipline in which Bradley Wiggins is supreme, only behind Cancellara and Tony Martin. He will take minutes out of his almost all his rivals in the time trials. That said Wiggins is not a one trick pony, he has shown that he is among the best climbers in the world and has the measure of many of his rivals in this department. He showed in the Tour of Romandie that he can sprint, and this development acceleration should do him good in the mountains. He also has a very strong team, who are committed to helping him win. It is fair to say that Froome and Porte could be considered possible contenders in their own right. Team Sky showed in the Criterium du Dauphine, amongst a number of other stage races this year, that they are very strong. They controlled the Dauphine with an iron grip, setting a strong enough pace in the mountains to deter attacks. Given all of this Wiggins is a strong favourite...

But, in sport anything can happen. Wiggins is not without his weakness, although he has done a good deal to lessen them. For a start an unfortunate crash, such as last year could ruin his chances. Team Sky haven’t shown the best tactical ability in the past and this could cause them problems if they underestimate another contender and don’t mark dangerous attacks (see Liquigas, Hesjedal and the 2012 Giro for an example of this). Another important point is that unlike other teams, such as BMC, Sky have split priorities, with a very strong contender for the Green Jersey in Cavendish. One of the keys to winning a race such as the TDF is the careful conservation of energy throughout, avoiding expending energy unless necessary. For Cavendish to have a chance of winning the Green Jersey, Sky will need to be attentive to his needs. This means that key riders such as Boassen-Hagen, Kness etc will have to expend energy on stages that will not decide the overall. In addition it also means that 2/9 riders will not be at the disposal of Wiggins, with Eisel and Cavendish poor climbing ability. This could tire the team significantly leaving Wiggins vulnerable to attacks. 

More Wiggin’s specific points are as follows. He is not as strong a descender as some of his other key rivals. Given the nature of the course this year, this could prove important. In addition questions have been raised over his ability to perform at the highest level over the three weeks, a notable different and more difficult task than over a week. A number of his rivals excel in the third week of a GT, so this will be important. The final problem is how good Wiggins is and the course. This means that many contenders have nothing to lose, and may throw the kitchen sink at Wiggins, with long range attacks. As we have seen in the previous couple of years, a well placed long range attack can transform a GT. All of the work will be left to Sky and Wiggins due to their strength.  Wiggins also has fanatic form this year, dominating the one week stage races. 

Summary – Strong favourite, strong climber, very strong TT, strong team

Pros – strong climber, very strong TT, strong team, good form

Cons – isn’t strongest descender, will be marked

Predicted final placing –   1^st (1-3) 

Cadel Evans *****

After two close 2^nd places in the TDF, Cadel Evans managed to mount the top step of the podium last year. It was a brilliant performance, with Evans personally taking the responsibility of chasing down his rivals, when his team faltered under severe pressure from Evans’s rivals. Evans had a very strong 2011 season previous to the TDF, winning the overall in Tour de Romandie and Tirreno-Adriatico. This was a key part of his meticulous preparation that lead to the excellent form he had in the 211 TDF. 2012 has not been as strong for Evans, with people thinking that this was not going to be his year. However Evans put in a recent strong performance in the Criterium du Dauphine, with second place, riding an aggressive race. He has had time to fine tune his form, and will have the relatively easy first week of the TDF to do the same. So he come into this race as a strong favourite. 

Evans, is a very strong climber and a very strong time trialist, in addition he can perform at a very high level over three weeks, getting stronger relative to his rivals. This last point is crucial as it will limit his losses (or possible maximise his gains) against Wiggins in the final time trial, the penultimate stage. He isn’t as strong a time trialist as Wiggins, but he is not far off, he is a stronger climber and most importantly a much better descender. Evans skill in descending, could prove crucial, given some of the technical descents this year, it could aid him in long range attack, or aid him in stage 16, which finishes on and descent. Evans could plausible take up to 3 minutes, and at least 30 seconds, out of Wiggins on a descent. All this said Evans win last year was surprising given his age, this year he is 35, which will not make his TDF any easier. Riders tend to crack quickly once over their peak; see Indurain, Merckx and Hinault. It will certainly mean that this is one of, if not the last, TDF he can hope to win. 

BMC are a strong team, but without the fire power of Team Sky in the mountains. In George Hincapie they have the most experienced (and best) road captain around, and this will be a great help to Evans attempt to win a second consecutive TDF. For the mountains Evans has Steve Cummings, Amaël Moinard and Tejay Van Garderen to aid him, alongside Philippe Gilbert. The team will have no problem control the race on the flat. 

Summary – Good form, good abilities, but may crack given his age, strong team

Pros – Ability to attack on all key areas of the course, ability in TT and climbing, fitness over 3 weeks, lack of pressure. 

Cons – Age, stiff competition

Predicted final placing – (1-3)

Denis Menchov ****

The silent assassin has had a very quite year this season, with no performances of note. However he has that nickname for a reason. Menchov has a way of hiding his form until it counts. In fact it probably won’t be obvious that he is a threat until he has won the race ! Of all the contenders this year he has the best record, 3 previous GT wins, 2 Vuelta’s and 1 Giro, and two podiums in the TDF (2^nd and 3^rd). His record in the TDF is erratic with either very strong top ten performances or a low placing (85th and 51^st), this makes a prediction of his performance this year difficult. Should he be in form a top 5 is very probable given the number of TT kilometres, if not then he will not feature. I would suspect that he is in form, given the support he has been given from Katusha.

 His attributes as a rider are his very strong climbing, Strong TT and strong recovery, coming into his peak in the crucial third week. He has a wealth of experience with 15 years as a pro and 9 years near the top. He is old, and conventional wisdom would have say too old at 34, however Cadel Evans managed it last year, and it seems that cycling is changing, with riders being able to race at near peak level into their thirties. His team isn’t as strong as Sky, but is reasonably strong and will offer good support. He has a couple of climbers at his disposal, and a number of strong men as domestiques. His big weakness is his descending, which is aweful and arguably lost him the 2008 TDF. 

Summary – A dark horse, either brilliant or awful. Strong TT, Climbing and performance over three weeks. 

Pros – Strong TT, Climbing and performance over three weeks.

Cons – Team isn’t as strong as others, v.weak descending, possibly form, age 

Predicted final placing –   (1-5 or below 20)

Levi Leipheimer ****

Of the same mould as the above three riders, a strong climber and strong TT rider. It is fair to say that Leipheimer is the best rider of the last 10 years not to have won a GT. He has come close on a number of occasions, held back by having to work for another teammate. He has been on the podium of the TDF, 3^rd in 2007, whilst working for Contador who won that year’s TDF, and in the top 10 on a number of occasions. 

I would have put him on the same level as Wiggins if not for an unfortunate crash in April, which left him with a broken leg. Before then he was looking like the top favourite, with very strong form, winning the Tour de San Luis in January amongst other strong performances. He has recovered a good deal of his form since the crash, with a decent 3^rd place in the Tour de Sussie, his climbing looks strong although his TT performance looked weak compared to his ability in this discipline and would need improvement to win the TDF. If he manages to boost his TT performance before the first TT, he will be a strong contender. His team, OPQS, are very strong, almost, if not as, strong as Team Sky with amble support on the flat. For the mountains, he has Peter Velits, who came 3^rd in the 2010 Vuelta and is a strong Climber and TT rider.  In fact Velits could be considered a contender in his own right and would be a good back up option should Leipheimer crack.  

Summary – Is a strong Climber and TT rider, but form is unknown, recent TT performances suggest form inst good enough to win.   

Pros – Is a strong Climber and TT rider, has a lot of experience, can perform well in GTs, strong team

Cons – form

Predicted final placing –   top 10, could well win/podium

Robert Gesink ****

Gesink has been on the verge of greatness for a couple of years, many had him on the podium of last year’s TDF. He is a very strong climber, near the level of the Schlecks/Contador, and is decent at TT’s. Rabobank are a strong team, with Tem Dam, Steven Kruijswijk and Bauke Mollema showing good recent form, especially in the mountains. Gesink’s recent form has been very good, winning the Tour of California and putting in a decent performance at the Tour de Sussie, indicating that he will be peak form coming into the TDF. The course doesn’t suit him as well as others, and the number of TT’s and lack of mountain top finishes will be to his disadvantage. He will have to go out and attack if he is too win this, not an easy task given the strength of other contenders and Team Sky. 

Summary – A strong contender for any TDF course, this course doesn’t suit him and he will need to gain time on Evans/Wiggins in mountains. 

Pros – v.strong climber, strong team, good form 

Cons – TT isn’t as strong as others, lacks experience

Predicted final placing –   top 5, could win, podium

Jurgen Van de Broek (Lotto-Belisol) ****

Van de Broek is coming into the peak period of his career, at the age of 29, he has yet to gain a podium in a GT. He has had a number of good performances in the GT’s with several top 10s. The best result of his career came in the 2010 TDF with an impressive 4^th position. In last year’s TDF, he crashed leaving him with  “a pneumothorax, broken ribs and a fractured shoulder”, he still managed to take 8^th in the 2011 Vuelta, only a month or two after these injuries. He is a v.good climber, better than Wiggins and Evans, and can do a good time trial, a discipline he excelled at as a young rider and which he has been working on. His form is good, with a strong performance in the TT in the Dauphine, only losing two minutes on Wiggins in 53 km. His climbing looked to be at its usual high standard, with Van de Broek sticking with the high pace of team Sky with little difficulty. Given that the Dauphine finished 3 weeks ago, they has been time to improve and fine tune as well. 

In Lotto-Belisol he has a solid team, however it is a team with split priorities, with a number of riders for Andre Greipel for the sprints. Due to the fact that Van de Broek’s is not a overwhelming favourite this isn’t as big a problem as it could be as Lotto-Belisol will not be expected to control the peloton (the field), that responsibility will be taken by Sky/BMC. That said it leaves him with little support for the mountains, the only other strong climber being Jelle Vanendert. For early support in mountains Adam Hansen and Francis De Greef will be good, but I don’t expect them to be around when the racing gets serious in the mountains. 

Summary – Good rider, a climber who can limit his losses in the TT

Pros – V. good form, V. Strong Climber, improving TT

Cons – TT ability relative to Wiggins, team isn’t the strongest. 

Predicted final placing –   4^th (top 10, could well win/podium)

Vincenzo Nibali ****

Vincenzo Nibali is my dark horse to win. I was tempted to put Nibali higher and be more optimistic about his chances of winning, but I decided to take a more objective view (Nibali is one of my favourite riders). Nibali is a good all rounder, strong in a number of areas. His has a good TT ability, although not on the same level as Evans and Wiggins. His climbing is often underrated, but he is a very good climber as his results in the 2010 Vuelta (Bola de Mundo), 2011 Giro (Zonclan) and other races shows. The area that Nibali excels in is descending where he can take minutes out of rivals, given the number of difficult descents this year this could be key. Another important factor about Nibali, one that could win him this TDF, is his will to win even if it means taking huge risks. This can go either way, with it failing in the 2011 Giro de Lombardia and it almost succeeding in 2012 Liege-Bastogne- Liege he came second).  As we saw in the 2011 TDF and 2012 Giro, making a long range attack can reap a lot of benefits. The course this year provides ample opportunities for long range attacks/ attacks on descents and plenty of incentive given the length of the time trials. We saw in the 2011 Vuelta that a decent attack can yield minutes. Nibali also has a good racing brain, being able to measure his effort and judge a good place to attack. His weakness is that he can fade into the third week of a GT, which can curtail his ability to attack. 

His season has been in two stages this year. In the early part of season, from the Tour of Oman in February to Liege-Bastogne-Liege in April was very good. He won Tirreno-Adriatico, a weeklong stage race, with a strong performance in climbing and in the TT, losing only 20 seconds to a fully fit Cancellara in 9 km. If he has this form in the TDF he will limit his losses to Wiggins and Evans well.  He showed strong performances in race such as the Tour of Oman, Milan-Sanremo and Liege-Bastogne-Liege among others. The second half of his season has not been as good, with an unmemorable Tour of California and a relatively weak Dauphine. In the Dauphine his climbing was relatively poor and his TT not good enough. However, many riders use the Dauphine as a warm up and there are three weeks for riders to tune their form. If Nibali has the form of the Dauphine he will not be a factor, if he has the form of the early part of this season he could win. 

In Liquigas-Cannondale he has a strong team, although much like Lotto-Belisol they have split priorities, with Sagan a favourite for the Green Jersey and a couple of stage wins. Nibali has  Ivan Basso as a super domestique for the mountains, which will help a lot, especially in combination with Sylwester Szmyd, the strongest climbing domestique around.  In addition Liquigas-Cannondale is a strong and diverse team, who can wreak havoc on descents/ unusual parts of the course, see the 2011 Vuelta stage 6.

Summary – Another Dark Horse, if on form and lucky could win or at least top 5

Pros – All round ability, Good TT, V. Good Climbing, V. Good descending, Will to win, will to task risks, tactical ability, and ability to keep his cool.  

Cons – recent form not brilliant can have a bad day.

Predicted final placing – top 10, depending on luck could be win or in top 5.

Samuel Sanchez  ****

Sanchez is a rider who has been close to winning a number of big races in his career, but has never quite managed it, the notable exception being the 2008 Olympic road race. He has been a threat in the TDF sine his 6^th place in 2008.  He has been on the podium (3^rd) once before in 2010, and last year came 5^th, his cause not helped by an unfortunate first week, where he had a number of crashes and was involved in a incident where he was caught behind a crash in the first stage, losing 1:14. Sanchez, like Nibali, is a great all rounder, with particular strength in climbing, Sanchez was last years’ King of the Mountains winner. His TT is not on the same level as Wiggins and Evans, but is good and he should be able to limit his losses in the 101 TT km well. He lost 1:30 dead to a on form Evans in the 42.5 km TT in last year’s TDF, so could be expected to lose around 3 minutes in this year’s TTs. He is a very good descender as he showed in stage 17 of 2011 TDF, with his attack on the descent of the Pinerolo. Given his all round strength and the course, he could very well win this race, but he will need to attack to do so.

His team, Euskaltel-Euskadi is both strong and weak, in the mountains they are strong, and on the flat they are weak, (close to being very weak). It is a team that thrives in the mountains, with all its riders specialising in this area. Therefore, if Sanchez is to avoid losing crucial time in the inconsequential (for the GC) stages of the TDF, he will need to be attentive and stick to the front of the peloton to avoid being caught out by a split in the field.

Summary – He has all the attributes to win this TDF, if he attacks to compensate for losses in the TT.

Pros – Strong Climbing, TT and descending, strong GT rider.

Cons – Weak team on flat,  

Predicted final placing – 5^th (1-7)

Frank Schleck ***

With the absence of his brother Andy due to a broken pelvis, Frank will be the lead rider for Radioshack- Nissan- Trek this year. The course could not be feasible worse for Frank, with 101 TT kilometres. Frank is poor in the TT, the comfortably worst of the main contenders (5* to 3*).  Schleck can expect to lose a minimum of 4 minutes in the TT’s and could plausibly lose 6-8 minutes. This is a shed load of time, and this factor alone should rule him out this year....

But, fortune favours the brave, as shown in the 2012 Giro and the 2011 TDF (incidentally by Andy Schleck). This course is designed to encourage long range attacks, and due to the course Frank Schleck has nothing to lose, worst comes to worse he gets a top 20 and can justifiable blame the course. If Frank Schleck wants any better that a low top 10 he will have to attack on stages such as stage 16, very hard. This is the only way to take the required time. Schleck is not helped in this by his poor descending ability which will hamper his ability to put minutes into his rivals. The only thing to counter this is the results of his attacks in the Tour de Sussie, however I don’t think these are representative of Schlecks ability or form and I think he may have been building form for the TDF/ sandbagging.

However, despite his descending and TT, he was three good factors that could lead him to do well. The first is supreme climbing, with Contador and his brother out; he is easily the best climber in the peloton. He can take minutes in the mountains (at least going uphill) and he will need to. He is a good enough climber to escape the clutches of Team Sky, with his strong acceleration and stamina. Secondly, he is in very good form, due to his early exit of the Giro and the Tour de Sussie. This will have built good form; some have said too good form, leading to him faltering in the TDF. I do not agree with this, Schlecks manager, Johan Bruyneel, is the best around and I don’t belief he would waste his best chance to win the TDF.  Thirdly, he has a very strong team, with Chris Horner and Andreas Klöden good enough in their own right to be considered contenders. This could help Schleck with an attack, either long or short range. It also will mean that he will not be isolated and lose time on the flat.

Summary –  Not his course, but if brave and lucky could pull it off

Pros – Strong climbing, strong team, nothing to lose.

Cons – poor TT and poor descending.

Predicted final placing –   Top 10, but probably not podium unless he pulls off a big attack. 

Movistar **  – Juan Jose Cobo/ Rui Costa

Both these riders have the potential to do well in the TDF, whether or not they will is another matter. Both will be riding for the Movistar team, and Valverde is the provisional leader. However things can change quickly in cycling and should Valverde crack, one of these two would be expected to take the leadership role. Let’s start with Juan Jose Cobo, he has a decent TT and is a very strong climber. These attributes won him the 2011 Vuelta, the pinnacle of his career thus far, beating Chris Froome and Wiggins. He has had a rocky career, often suffering from depression, which has affect his results. Therefore his form, especially given his lack of racing this year, is hard to predict. He could either come in with good form and do well (top 10) or with poor form and not make the top 20. If he is at his best I think he can do top 5/ possibly make 3^rd , due to the number of TT km in this TDF.

Rui Costa is a perhaps too high at 2* as he has not shown anything in GT’s before (for overall performance). However he has shown ample talent in stage races, coming second in Tour de l'Avenir in 2008 and winning the Tour de Sussie this year. The reason I have included him is due to his form this year, and his attributes. He has been consistently good this year, notably in stage races, in the earlier part of the season he took 3rd Overall in the Tour de Romandie and 5th Overall Volta ao Algarve. Most recently he took a convincing overall win in the Tour de Sussie. The attributes which helped him to these victories were his decent climbing and strong time trialling, indeed in Romandie, he only lost 23 seconds over 16 km to Wiggins. If extrapolated to the TDF, this leaves him losing a mere 2.5 minutes to Wiggins. If he manages this in the TDF he can podium. His main weakness will be hanging on in the climbs, as he is not as strong a climber as most of the favourites. Could very well top 10, if doesn’t have to work too hard for Valverde/ Cobo. Certainly a GT rider for the future.

Rein Taaramäe **

Taaramäe will enjoy the course this year, given the number of TT kilometres, Taaramäe came 12^th in last year’s climbing intensive TDF, and therefore was just deprived of the white jersey. This year he should do well in that competition and probably win it. Taaramäe has decent climbing and good time trialling, which should help him break the top 10 this year. Taaramäe is still developing as a rider, so could have a breakthrough year.

Predicted final placing – just inside top 10 (give or take 3 places)

Pierre Rolland **

Rolland showed his talent last year, with 10^th place overall and the white jersey. He is a strong climber and a decent TT rider. His relative lack of strength in the TT and lack of experience may be an obstacle in breaking the top 5. He will however only get better as he gets older, could break through this year.

Predicted final placing – top 10, no higher than 6^th

Janez Brajkovič *

Thomas Voeckler *

OPQS  –  Tony Martin*/ Peter Velits**

RadioShack-Nissan-Trek *  –  Chris Horner/ Andreas Klöden/ Haimar Zubeldia

Garmin – Tom Danielson/ Dan Martin/Christian Van de Velde *

Jean-Christophe Péraud*

Nicholas Roche *

Thibaut Pinot *

Jérôme Coppel *

Lieuwe Westra *

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The Contenders for the Points Jersey (Green jersey)

The point that count to the Green jersey, where recalibrated last year, to favour pure sprinters such as Cavendish. There are two sets of points avaible on a stage, at the finish and at a sprint point. With Cavendish and David Brailsford (team Sky head and head of British cycling) stating the Olympics as a major goal, it is very possible that Cav may leave the TDF before its conclusions to save form for the Olympics. Matt Goss has stated clearly that he will go onto the end. Goss is probably the 2^nd best sprinter in the world (behind Cav) and a sprinter that Cav rates. This year we alos see the exciting debut of the phenomenal Peter Sagan, a much talked about rider who has dominated the sprints in the races he has been in this year. In addition he is a strong all rounder, who could plausible go out on the attack on a number of stages, he is a much better climber than most sprinters. In addition the storng German talent Marcel Kittle will be making his debut. It will be an interesting completion this year, let’s take a look at the favourites in more detail.

Cavendish *****

The undisputed top sprinter in the sport of professional cycling, he has won everything a pure sprinter can be expected to win, with a world title, a Milan-San Remo, a TDF green jersey and a large quantity of GT stage wins to his name (amongst countless other stages in other races/ one day classics). If all goes to plan he will add the Olympic title to this impressive record. Cavendish, in top form, is quite simply a bike length (at least) quicker than all the competitors he has had in the last 4 years. He has had a relatively quite year, with a mere 3 stage wins in the Giro, taking the one day classic Kuurne–Brussels–Kuurne, and a number of stages in the Tour of Qatar/Tirreno–Adriatico. He came close to the points jersey at the Giro, but was piped by one point by Joaquim Rodriguez (the point jersey in the giro is not a sprinters jersey, but an all rounder’s jersey).  Most recently, his only race between the Giro and the TDF, he competed in, and won the overall of the Ster ZLM Toer, interestingly without winning a stage. This is a new skill for Cavendish, consistency to not lose time and to win a stage race overall, a feat he hadn’t previously achieved, sacrificing some pure speed for stamina. It will be interesting to see how this affects his form in the TDF, although the Giro shows he is still quick.

Cavendish will win a number of stages this year; there is very little doubt of that. Whether this will lead to the Green Jersey or not is another matter. To win the Green Jersey consistency is needed, and to guarantee consistency, a sprinter needs a strong team who can mark dangerous breakaways. It has to be remembered at this point that Team Sky are also going very strongly for the Yellow Jersey. The last time a team won the Yellow and a Green jersey was 1997’s effort by Team Telekom. It is a hard achievement and the winner Jan Ullrich, dominated in a way that Wiggins will not be able to do, beating the second place rider by just over 9 minutes.  There are positives and negatives in Cavendish’s and sky’s attempt to achieve this double, which I shall discuss in the next two paragraphs.

Let’s start with the negatives (so we can finish on a positive note); this year Cavendish’s team have split priorities, looking at the Team, it seems that Cavendish only has one domestique detailed to his goal exclusively, Bernie Eisel. The rest are dedicated to Wiggins, or have split roles.  This means that chasing down breakaways will be a harder task, as less fire power is available. In addition, given Cavendish’s dominance of sprints, other teams may be very reluctant to help, and I doubt Sky will send riders in the breakaway to force other team to chase. This could mean that breakaways could succeed, which will encourage more and bigger breakaways. For Cavendish to win the Green jersey he needs to take big hauls of points in the flat sprinter’s stages, if he struggles to do this then the Green jersey will be a more difficult goal. Even if breakaways are caught, the lack of team support will also hamper his chances to win stages. With HTC (Cavendish previous team), the team controlled the final few kilometres precisely, delivering Cav in a perfect position to finish. Sky will not be able to do that this year. Now Cavendish doesn’t need a lead out to win, he has v.strong bike handling and race awareness, being able to navigate a charging peloton to find a gap and win. However this approach has two big inherent problems, both relating to probability, rather than skill. One, the more riders you are behind the greater the chance you will be caught behind a crash, and two the more riders you are behind the greater the chance you will be boxed in. We have seen both of these affect Cav in the Giro and we have seen Cavendish struggle, resulting in a non-win, from being out of position in a sprint, with his sprint mistimed leading to another rider winning. Finally, his form in the Ster ZLM Toer suggested that Cav has lost some of his trademark blinding acceleration which was crucial to his stage wins, if this is the case, the green jersey will be wide open with good sprinters such as Sagan and Griepel winning stages and points. In addition, Cav lost a two Giro stages he should have conventionally won, this will give the other sprinters hope. All of the above suggest Cav will struggle.

On the positive side; other teams have very strong sprinters this year, Liquigas-Cannondale, Orica-GreenEDGE, Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano (who have based their whole team on their sprinter Kittle) going for sprint victories and the green jersey. All these teams have sprinters who have done well this year and they will be motivated and have the belief that they can win TDF stages. This will be further reinforced by the fact that Cav has been beaten fair and square this year, which will give them the belief that there sprinters can win, and therefore, their team will work, controlling the race and chasing down breakaways. This will work to Cavendish advantage. In addition, these teams have strong sprint trains, which Cav can latch onto, a skill that Cav is one of the best at. The fact that Team Sky is also going for the overall also has benefits, as well as negatives. Teams going for the overall tend to control the peloton in a stage anyway, not giving too much time to breakaways and keeping their leaders near the front to protect them in the closing stages of the race. Therefore, especially with support from other teams, Team Sky will not expend much more energy than they would otherwise, and most of the burden will fall to their men for the flat (Sivtsov, Knees and Eisel). Cav will have the supremely talented Boasson Hagen as a lead out man, a role in which he is very good at, (he could be a good sprinter in his own right) and this shouldn’t effect Boasson Hagen’s ability to be strong for Wiggins in the mountains that much. The final point to make in Cav’s favour is how good he is. He is the best sprinter of all time. He is very strong in all attributes of sprinting and therefore very versatile and has an unrelenting desire to win that sees him win on stage many don’t expect. He is simply the fastest around, and in addition, he is very consistent, has brilliant bike handling, tactical knowledge and race awareness. He is also now a experienced rider, with 5 years at the top, and during his time at Team Sky, he has developed greater stamina and even greater consistency, as shown by his win in the Ster ZLM Toer. Coming into this TDF he has no pressure; he has won the Green jersey before, and is world champion. This may lead to the strongest mental state he has had in his career and therefore the best form of his career, this year could well be a master class from Cavendish and silence any of his remaining critics.

Pros – unmatched talent, supreme acceleration, no pressure

Cons – If too dominant will lose out to breakaways, Sky’s split priorities, recent form in sprint not great (relative to his norm), not an all round rider (will suffer in hilly/mountainous terrain), lead out train isn’t strong, could prioritise an Olympic gold medal leaving before the end of TDF.

Peter Sagan ****

Peter Sagan has been talked about as the next big thing in cycling for the past two years with his    very strong results. The last three years Sagan has dominated the sprints in the stage races he has participated in, and not just in smaller less prestigious races either, he has been very strong in the most prominent stage races such as  Paris–Nice, Tour de Suisse etc. Sagan has continued this trajectory, with an impressive performance in his maiden GT, the 2011 Vuelta, with three stage wins, coming 4^th in the point classification (it actually should have been four but due to a lazy race steward who was at a bar instead of his post he went the wrong way in the final km of a stage losing any chance of winning the stage). In his debut monument races this year, he put in very strong maiden performances, with 4^th in Milan – San Remo (best of thr sprinters, he would have won it if had been a sprint),  2^nd in Gent–Wevelgem,  5th in  the Tour of Flanders (despite a massive solo effort to catch the top three who had broken away) and 3^rd in  the Amstel Gold Race (showing his versatility as this race finishes on a steep hill top). Sagan has had a supreme season this year, with the above classics result, plus 4/9 stages in the Tour de Sussie and 5/8 stages in the Tour of California, both against strong competition.

Sagan, as his results from the above paragraph show, is not actually a pure sprinter, but a very strong all rounder, with a very strong sprint. He can win all types of sprints, from pure flat sprints to uphill power sprints and technical twisty sprints. In addition, unlike a lot of sprinters he is a competent climber, especially on shorter cat. 2-4 hills, he is a brilliant descender and bike handler (check out this video). As the Tour de Sussie showed, he can put in a very strong prologue (short TT, sub 10 km) performance. All of this means that he can Hoover up points like no other rider. He can duel with the likes of Cav for points/stage wins on the typical sprinter stages, he can do a Thor Hushovd style breakaway on a hilly/mountain stage and can gain points in the prologue. It is also unlikely that he will lose point by being outside the time limit, a problem that cost Cav and others 20 points in last year’s TDF. Sagan will be Cav’s strongest rival by a good margin due to these factors, and we may even see Sagan beat Cav in a fair and square, pure sprint (on a road that is straight, flat and wide).

In Liquigas-Cannonadale he has a decent team to aide him in his quest for the green jersey, with Daniel Oss for the lead outs, one of the best in the business ( although like Cav he doesn’t actually need a team). Although like Cav, this team has split priorities, with Nibali going for Yellow.   

The final thing to be said for Sagan is this. This is his first TDF, the TDF is a race unlike any other ridden at t furious pace. This may impede Sagan. There again Sagan has tackled every step up in his career thus far very well.

Pros – V. Good form, versatility in sprints, decent team, supreme talent, bike handling, strong all round ability including climbs, hunger to win

Cons – Not many technical sprints, many flat, wide and straight sprints which will favour Cav, probably not able to match Cav, is his first TDF, young (22) .

Matt Goss ***

Unlike most of his rivals Goss has a team whose main goal is for him to win stages and win the green jersey, the other goal they have is to win stages, a goal that will not interfere with Goss’s objectives. Goss has a hell of a kick (acceleration), which none other than Cavendish respects. As his win of the 2011 edition of Milan- San Remo shows he is a tough rider, for whom mountains/ hills aren’t a massive problem. Goss can survive stages that most other sprinters can’t (with the exception of Sagan), which he has a good chance of winning due to the lack of other sprinters (this wouldn’t be true in Sagan was present). Goss has stated clearly that he intends to race to the end of the TDF. Therefore if Cavendish pulls out, this makes him a strong favourite to win the green jersey. His biggest obstacle in this case would be Sagan. He would have the same problems that Cav would have against Sagan, except more severe as Goss isn’t as consistently quick as Cav. I would expect that he would not have the same dominance as Cav, with Sagan, Kittle, Griepel etc having a good chance of beating him. This would deprive him of points that Sagan could take off him, although out of all the other sprinters Goss can minimise this.

Pros – Quick, strong team dedicated to helping Goss, ability to cope well with hilly terrain.

Cons – Not as good as Cav or Sagan.

André Greipel **

“The Gorilla” has been in fine form this season, with a good haul of victories (14), the most recent of these in the Ster ZLM Toer, beating a few of his rivals in the TDF, including the big target Cavendish. His form coming into the TDF is strong, and I expecting him to win a stage, or at least get very close. He has a strong team coming into the TDF. Like many of the other sprinters teams it has split priorities, but unlike others, the balance seems to be in Greipel’s favour, with at least 5 riders to help him, with only Vanendert detailed exclusively for Van de Broek (although he could also help Greipel on the flat). His sprint train is strong, having been drilled throughout the year in preparation for the TDF. This will all help him in his quest to win a stage. Greipel is a traditional “power” sprinter, who can use this power to beat Cav occasionally, especially if the sprint is an uphill drag.

The problem Greipel has is that, although he is consistent, he is not dominant. If Cav doesn’t pull out then there is little chance that Greipel can gain enough points to win the Green jersey. Unlike Sagan and Goss, he cannot before that well in the mountains/in hilly stages and gain points where Cav cannot. If Cav does pull out then his consistency and power will count.

Pros – Good team, good form, good talent

Cons – Not as good an all-rounder as Sagan/Goss, Not as good as Cav

José Joaquín Rojas **

Rojas was second in last year’s competition so has a good claim to be higher than this. However, I have put him lower for a couple of reasons. Firstly, Rojas isn’t a pure sprinter, more an all rounder with a very good sprint. His best placing in a TDF stage is 3^rd, he cannot consistently match the likes of Cav in a pure sprint. Secondly, his team Movistar has in Valverde and Costa, two riders who could win the yellow jersey. Rojas is a strong rider who would be expected to act as a strong domestique, this costs valuable energy needed for sprints. All this said, Rojas has the consistency to win this completion, and before the point allocation changes would have. He can hoover up points in non sprint terrain and place in top 10 in pure sprint stages. However, given the point allocations and Movistar’s other priorities I don’t think this will be his year.

Pros – good an all-rounder, good form, good talent, lasts well for three weeks.

Cons –Not a pure sprinter, strong competition, placing in pure sprint stages won’t be consistently high enough to gain necessary points.

Mark Renshaw *

Mark Renshaw was Mark Cavendish’s loyal and brilliant lead out man for three years, contributing to Cav’s superb results through out that time. Like a number of Cav’s other lead out men, including Greipel, Gerald Ciolek, Renshaw has decided to start racing for himself and see what he can do as a main sprinter. Like other riders who have tried to make the transition from lead out man to main sprinter (such as Robbie Hunter, Julian Dean, Ciolek etc) it has not been a smooth transition (at least at first). Renshaw, hasn’t had a brilliant year, often faltering in the sprints. In most sprints he is consistently in the top 10, but doesn’t have that little bit extra to win. He has had 1 victory this year, a stage in the Tour of Turkey and a 3^rd place in a stage of the Giro. Due to these performances, he isn’t necessarily the lead sprinter in his team anymore, with Theo Bos having shown his talent this year. However for the TDF he will be Rabobank’s main (indeed only) sprinter. I predict that he will be consistently in the top 10, and may be in top 3 on a couple of stages. With the form of a lot of the other sprinters, I think he will struggle to win a stage, but he could do so if lucky. He is a pure sprinter, and is not a great all rounder. All of these factors will limit his ability to win the green jersey.

 

Pros – No pressure, is consistent, has talent

Cons – No team to help, not as good as other sprinters, form hasn’t been great this year, isn’t strong enough to hunt for points in non sprint stages. 

Tyler Farrar *

Farrar gained his first TDF stage in at year’s edition, a memorable and emotional win dedicated to his friend the late Wouter Weylandt. Farrar has been unlucky in his career, having been in the shadow of Cav. He is getting on for a sprinter as well at the age of 28. Many sprinters tend to lose there “kick” at around this age (see Tom Boonen) turning into classics specialist, a transition that Farrar has begun. Farrar hasn’t had a brilliant year, with no individual wins, and it looks as if his form isn’t good this year (sprinting wise). He may win a stage if lucky. I don’t think he will have the consistency to mount a challenge for the Green jersey.

Pros – No pressure, is experienced, could hunt for points in non sprint stages

Cons – No team to help, not as good as other sprinters, form hasn’t been great this year, may be past his best

Marcel Kittel *

Kittel is a talented German youngster with the Pro-Continental (second division basically) Argos-Shimano team. He has ridden a GT before, the 2011 Vuelta, and did well, winning a stage. This will be his first TDF, and he will be racing against the very best. Kittel has had a good year, with 7 wins, 2 of those within the last month (against the best; Cav, Greipel etc) in the Ster ZLM Toer. I suspect he has a good chance of winning a TDF stage in this year’s edition, with consistent high placing (5ht and above). In Argos-Shimano he has a team which is fully dedicated to helping him win a stage and who have been well drilled, helping Kittel win numerous stages for the last couple of years. Given his strength as a sprinter it might be wondered why I have give him such a low chance. The reason is that the TDF is the highest level, and it will be a big step up. In addition, Kittel is s pre sprinter who will struggle as the road goes uphill, this will wear him out for the sprints and stop him going point hunting. Also Kittel didn’t finish the 2011 Vuelta, the TDF is ridden at a harder pace, so it could well be the case that he pulls out before the end.

Pros – Is talented, has good form, has a team dedicated to helping him

Cons – Strong competition, lack of GT experience, pure sprinter

The Contenders for the King of the Mountains Jersey (Polka dot jersey)

Preamble

The King of the Mountains jersey is one of the hardest to predict. This is due to the inherent overlap with the overall GC (yellow jersey) competition. The King of the Mountains jersey is supposed to be a completion between the best climbers, however if you’re a good climber there is a chance that you can win the overall. This meant that for the 90’s and 00’s the competition was often won by a non climbing specialist, usually a plucky Frenchman prepared to go on the attack everyday to scoop up the points on the easier mountains. The rules were changed last year to favour the pure climbers, with many more points given on the final and more difficult climbs (those two often go hand in hand). Therefore, it is very possible this completion could be won by one of the overall contenders. However, riders who are strong climbers, but pose no threat have a definite advantage. So let’s take a look at the possible contenders ... ( it could very well be the case that it is won by someone not on this list)

Michele Scarponi *****

A surprise inclusion in this year’s tour, due to the massive effort he made in his defence of his Giro title. Michele Scarponi perfectly fits the ideal description of a top contender for this competition. For a start he is a very good climber, one of the best in the world. He doesn’t have the recovery of Hesjedal, and therefore the effort of the Giro will have removed any real chance of competing for the overall. However he should have recovered enough to mount a challenge for this competition. In addition he is not a good enough TT rider to seriously contend for the overall. Therefore he will be given the freedom to get into breakaways and collect valuable points. He should also have enough strength to pick up good points on the tough climbs and final climbs. Scarponi has stated that the KOM jersey is a goal of his, alongside a stage win (which would almost certainly be in a mountain stage and therefore help his KOM campaign). In addition Scarponi’s team have no contradicting goals, looking only for stage wins. In Matt Lloyd they have another climber who can aide Scarponi, either by help with pacing or snatching points from rivals.

Dan Martin ****

Dan Martin has stated that the KOM is a goal of his. Martin is a good climber, who took a good mountain stage win against strong competition in last year’s Vuelta. Martin does well in mountainous stage races and one day classics. This is only his second GT, due to his longstanding problem with allergies. Martin will not be viewed as a threat for the overall, so will be given freedom to get into breakaways. As his team doesn’t contain a major contender, he will also have a degree of freedom as long as Garmin aren’t holding the yellow jersey/ they are posing a threat in the last week. I have put Martin as second favourite due to his competition, mainly Scarponi. Martin has relatively little experience of GT’s, and faded towards the end of the Vuelta, remaining strong throughout a GT usually requires a few previous GTs in the legs to build stamina. Scarponi has plenty of experience having won one of the hardest GT’s of the last decade. Also Scarponi is a better climber, espealiiy over more difficult climbs. The final point is that unlike Scarponi’s team, Martins team have a couple of riders who could plausibly win/podium this race. With his abilities, Martin would be drafted in to help these riders in their goals.

Frank Schleck ***

Schleck will probably not be targeting the KOM jersey, unless his GC hopes go very wrong, in which case he may try to salvage his Tour by winning the completion. However, in order to win/podium the TDF he will have to use his very strong climbing ability, either winning mountain top finishes or going out on long range attacks on mountain stages. Both of these will lead to a large accumulation of KOM points, especially with the bias placed on the final climb.

Samuel Sanchez ***

Samuel Sanchez was last year’s winner of the competition for very similar reasons to the above. In order to put time into his rival he attacked in the mountains gaining points. When it was clear he wasn’t going to podium he went for the KOM jersey, He could win it again for similar reasons.

Random GC contender ***

Nibali, Gesink, Van de Broek etc, all could end up winning this as a consequence of their GC ambitions.

Others to watch

David Moncoutie

The longstanding Cofidis rider David Moncoutie is a good climber, who has won the mountains jersey in the Vuelta 4 times in a row, a record. He is in no way a threat to the GC contenders and will definitely be in a number of breakaways. He is co leader of his team and will be given freedom to act as he pleases. He has won a couple of stages in the TDF before.

Sandy Casar

Casar rode well in the Giro, being inside the top 10 at points (in the mountain stages!), he rode aggressively and well in the mountains. If he is able to recreate this form and go for the KOM he could win it.

Random plucky Frenchman

Last year suggested that the days of the random plucky Frenchman were over, with the pure climbers to regin from now on. But I still think that a random plucky Frenchman can do it. They will need a bit of luck and a lot of dedication, however of the GC riders end up splitting the points between them it could be possible to gain more points by going out on the attack constantly, collecting points on the way. I guess that if this was the case an alliance of the French team would be formed to gain some glory for the homeland .I would expect a rider from one of the French Teams; AG2r, Cofidis, Team Eurocar, Saur-Sojasun and FDJ to fulfil this role however could be a Frenchman from another team.

The Contenders for the Best Young Rider Jersey (White jersey)

Preamble

This is the narrowest of competitions, with a mere 21 riders eligible. In order to be eligible, a rider needs to be boon in 1987 or later. Out of these 21 only a few have talent as a GC rider, with other specialising in other areas, or still trying to find out what sort of rider they are. A lot of these riders will be happy to finish the TDF, let alone win this completion, and little/no pressure will be put on them. The white jersey completion is a good chance to see talent for the future, however it is fair to say that it is the least important of the competitions, and the teams of most of these riders will have other bigger priorities. 

Rein Taaramäe *****

The big favourite in my books, Taaramäe is already an established rider ignoring his age. He came a respectable 12^th in last year’s TDF, on a course less suited to him than this year’s. The number of TT kilometres in this year’s TDF will aide him greatly. In addition his big rivals from last year will not be present in this competition, with Uran having done the Giro and Pierre Rolland being too old. Out of all of the contenders he has the best record in the TDF and is one of the best TT riders. In addition his team Cofidis is largely dedicated to him winning this competition/ doing well in the overall GC (the two obviously complement each other). If Taaramäe is in a strong GC position, his team will come to his aide, more than can be said for some of the other white jersey contenders. 

Wout Poels ****

After Taaramäe, Poels is the second most experienced/successful GT rider. Poels had a decent Vuelta in 2011, gaining 17^th place, 11 minutes behind the winner, with an impressive performance on the Angliru. Poels is a strong climber and a competent and developing TT rider. He is not as strong in the TT as Taaramäe or van Garderen, but a better climber. Like Taaramäe he has the benefit of being in a team who don’t have other major objectives that clash with his. Vacansoleil-dcm will be aiming for stages and for Poels to gain a good GC place/ white jersey and therefore the team will be at Poels disposal, to help him if he wishes. 

Steven Kruijswijk ***

If Kruijswijk was on Cofidis or Vacansoleil-dcm he would be the favourite for this competition. He is one of the most talent young riders around, who already has 3 GT’s in his legs (2 Giros and a Vuelta). In one of these managed a top 10, (8^th in the 2011 Giro). He is a good time trialist and a good climber and can last over three weeks. Alas for Kruijswijk the White jersey is not his teams or indeed (officially) his aim this year. If all goes to plan for Rabobank Kruijswijk will aide Gesink in his attempt to win the Yellow jersey. If Kruijswijk does gain the white jersey he will be expected to still give his all for Gesink and not waste energy defending it. However, if Kruijswijk is lucky he may gain the white jersey in the process of helping Gesink gain the overall (see Andy Schleck 2008, Yaroslav Popovych 2005 etc). Indeed should Gesink falter (which is possible) Kruijswijk could find himself going for yellow as well as white, in this case he would be a strong favourite for the white jersey given his strength and the strength of his team. Kruijswijk has had a good season and looked to be in great form in the Tour de Sussie.

Tejay van Garderen  ***

Much of the same that applies to Kruijswijk applies to van Garderen. Van Garderen is a strong rider, who already has two GT’s under his belt. In addition he has a superb junior record and early pro career; he looks like a rider who will win the TDF at least once in his career and possibly dominate it. He is a strong time trialist, and decent climber, although he tends to crack when the going gets really tough. Van Garderen has had a good season with 5^th in Paris-Nice, winning the best young rider completion, and forth in the Tour of California, he should come into this race with good form. Van Garderen would be a favourite if not for his team, and therefore his role in this race. His BMC team contains the defending champion Cadel Evans, who looks like he will be very strong. Therefore van Garderen will be expected to give all his effort to help Evans win, being a key helper in the mountains. He may find that this leads to him winning the white jersey, but he will face stiff competition from rider who are the sole focus of their teams (Poels, Taaramäe, Pinot). In fact his situation is worse than Kruijswijk’s as Evans is a big favourite and therefore BMC will be expected to do a lot of work, especially if Evans is going well.

Thibaut Pinot *

Pinot is the youngest rider in the race at the age of 22. He is a very promising young talent, who has been talked about as a man for the future by many commentators/ insiders. This is his first GT, so it will be a valuable experience. The fact that it is his first GT, will make winning the white jersey harder, especially given the competition he faces. Pinot is a strong climber and decent TT rider for his age, although he will not be able to match the contenders for the GC in these disciplines. His team has no conflicting aims, so he will have support.