Its the big one, after a week of suspense comes the jewel in the crown.
The rainbow jersey the winner is awarded is one of the most prestigious prizes
in cycling that all the biggest names in cycling (with the honourable exception
of Jacques Anquetil) have worn. The road race world championship is an event
that has been held since 1927 and therefore allows comparison throughout the
ages. For those of you used to stage races there are some slight differences.
1) The world championships are raced by national teams
2) There are a lot more attacks and the racing is much more aggressive
3) World Championship courses are significantly longer than even grand
tour stages. The course this year is 266 km.
4) It is normal for a large number of the participants not to finish
5) Due to the above they are usually quite hard to predict
The Course
The course is as flat as you will get for a world championship, which
should strongly favour the sprinters. There is a introductory 28 km before the
race reaches the circuit which will be completed 17 times (and is 14 km long).
The profile is below, and there is only about a 40 metre difference in elevation.
The most interesting point to note is the drag up to the finish line which will
affect the sprint (especially after 288 km) more in the favour of stronger,
more powerful riders (Hushovd, Sagan etc)
I have also spotted another very informative video about the course. The main aspect of the course that will cause difficulty
is its technical nature. There are quite a few tight corners that will have to
be negotiated carefully. If it rains I predict all hell will break loose and
there will be crashes. The roads in places are narrow and if leaves are blown
onto the road things could get interesting.
The first part of the course lends itself to attacks. This part of the
course is up and down and most of the tight corners are in this part of the
circuit. The second part is flatter with less corners (which are much easier to
deal with). The sting in the tail however is the last 1 km and in particular
the last 500 or so metres. If this comes down to a sprint finish position at
this point will be crucial, there is a sharp right hand turn just before the
rising finishing straight. If you hit the breaks too hard here and lose position,
you will be out of the medals for sure.
The
Race
Before
I go through the favourites its worth mentioning how the race could possibly
look and mentioning some of the teams that will look to contend (as opposed to
teams that are supporting one rider).
As
I have mentioned previously world championships are fanatic races that feature
constant attacks. I guess what we will see is an early attack of no hopers who
will lead the race for the first 1/2-3/4 of the race. This group will be kept
on a leash by the teams of the sprinters (UK, Australia, USA and Germany) and
then reeled in. The natural reaction will be counter attacks by much more
dangerous riders who could stay away. From here on in it will be a cat and
mouse game between the teams of the sprinters and the breakaway groups. It is
most likely that the breakaway groups will be caught and for the final 10- 20
km the teams of the sprinters will set such a high pace that no one can attack.
If this is the case there will be a bunch sprint. The great thing about the
worlds thought is that the unexpected can happen, so a rider not listed as a
favourite here or indeed from a nation that is predicted to do well could win.
The
Teams
There
are a number of teams that are participating in world championship, there are
many that don’t have a hope in hell. There are others that will be working solely
for their sprinters such as the UK, Australia, USA and Germany which I wont
discuss here (see contenders). And then there are the teams that will work as a
team in the hope that one of their riders will win and do not have a set in
stone team leader.
First
off - The Italians
The
Italians have an outside chance of a medal if there is a bunch sprint, this
said, this outside chance is not great enough for them to contribute to any of
the work done by the peloton. The Italians tactics will be brutal but very
effective, they will attack constantly and any breakaway that does not have
Italian riders will be chased down. They aim to always have at least two riders
in any breakaways that form (in fact their coach two time winner Paolo Bettini has
said as much). This tactic is a long established tradition and it is partly
why there have been 19 Italian wins in this event over the 75 editions (a
success rate of 25 % !)
The
Belgiums
Will
have similar tactics to the Italians. I would not be surprised if an alliance
of convenience is formed. Have strength and depth to attack a lot and maybe
hold something for the sprint. (And these tactics are why they have won this
event 25 times! a success rate of 1/3 !)
The
Spanish
Half
and half. Can compete in the sprint for a medal position with José Joaquín
Rojas and maybe Friere but have the strength and depth to try their luck in the
breakaways
The
French
Are
going to have to try their luck in the breakaways.
The Eritreans
Are not going to win this race, and indeed it would be an
achievement if any of their riders finished it. However they are a rising
cycling nation that I think in a 5 - 10 years time will be a presence on the cycling
scene. ( I will do a post on Eritrean cycling soon, it is quite interesting)
So onto the contenders, (and its good for us Brits)
This world championships could go one of three ways (well to be fair it could go one of thousands of ways, but lets keep this simple).
1) A bunch sprint finish
2) A sprint finish from a breakaway group
3) A lone solo attack from a breakaway group
It is most likely (but by no means certain) that number 1 will be the case, as the course is relatvily flat. If this is the case their is a strong candandidate.
Mark Cavendish
When it comes to bunch sprints, he is simply the
best, very possibly of all time. Mark Cavendish's acceleration is second to
none and this is borne out by his results. 20 Stage wins in the Tour de France,
a Green jersey this year, 7 stages in the Giro d'Italia and 3 stages and a
Green jersey in the Vuelta a España. In addition to this he has won the Milan - San Remo in exuberant style (and this is not an easy race for a sprinter to win as it has some quiet tasty hills in it towards the end) and two madison world titles (see here for more info). He has also won countless other stages across a range of races. So he is very good and can deal with courses more difficult than this (see Milan - San Remo). He also, this year, has an excellent team, the strongest that the UK has ever sent and one of the strongest teams in the race this year, all they are missing is an extra rider (we have 8 out of a possible 9 due to fact we did not have 9 world tour point scorers, see here for more info). However the riders we do have are good and they are all dedicated to setting Cav up for the victory. There is the enviable train of Chris Froome, Bradley Wiggins, David Millar and Geriant Thomas, all world class time trialists in addition to Steve Cummings and Ian Stannard, who are both talented and the experienced Jeremy Hunt. I would guess that Geriant Thomas will be the lead out man for Cavendish as to the rest of the composition of the lead out train I am less sure. I guess Cumming, Stannard and Hunt will control the breakaways in first part of the race, with Chris Froome, Bradley Wiggins and David Millar reeling them in towards the end and setting a scorching pace in the last part of the race to stop any counter attacks. These guys know each other well and I think there will be good coordination
of the British teams efforts, they will give 100% for Cav. He also did well in Tour of Britain with 2 stage wins which is important for Cavendish as he tends to need a few wins before really hitting his stride.
Pros - Exceptional talent, good motivation, v.good team, decent preparation (did well in Tour of Britain with 2 stage wins to boost confidence), many other top sprinters dropped out of Vuelta, The fact that he is such a favourite may lead the other teams to focus on attacking.
Cons - Preparation could have been better (if he had not dropped out of the vuelta (no fault of his own - stomach bug)), can underperform under pressure.
Matt Goss
Normally I would put Tyler Farrar here but I have a feeling about this.
Matt Goss is the HTC team mate of Mark Cavendish. He is good and indeed
Cavendish himself thinks so. He has won a stage of the Tour Down Under this
year and Milan - San Remo, he has previously been a world champion in Team
Pursuit amongst other victories. He is quick and this course suits him, he has
also yet to show his full potential (especially as he has been in the shadow of
Cavendish for a lot of his career).
Pros- Course suits him, has talent, strong team.
Cons- Not as good as Cavendish, poor preparation, didn’t look great in
the London-Surrey cycle classic.
Tyler Farrar
Tyler Farrar has had a rollercoaster season, from the tragic loss of one
of his best friends in the Giro, to his first stage win in the Tour de France
(TdF) and then onto his sheepish exit from the Vuelta after causing a crash in
stage 7. He is somewhat Poulidor to Cavendish's Merckx, he has been the best of
the rest in Cavendish's time. He has won two stages of the Giro as well as
three stages of the Vuelta. He is good, but he comes into the world
championships with poor preparation and not great form. However, the hardship
of this year could give him a lot motivation to succeed.
Pros- Talented, decent team, consistently good
Cons- Poor recent form, poor preparation, not quite as good as Cav
André Greipel
The "Gorilla", Cav's scorned ex team mate ( Cav was supposed
to be Greipel's lead out man), and a excellent sprinter who has shown that he
can beat Cav in a fair fight in this years TdF. Greipel has 4 Vuelta stages and
2 Giro stages to his name as well as a green jersey from the Vuelta in addition
to his many other victories in races such as the Tour Down Under, the Tour of
Turkey and others. There have been doubts about his ability to perform at the
top level which must have surely been quashed by the TdF stage win. This is
important, Cav tried and was beaten (unlike his usual losses which are due to
him not trying/ crashing/losing position/poor lead out). Greipel positioned
himself perfectly on Cav's wheel and jumped. To be fair Cav misjudged his
effort, but Greipels acceleration was brilliant. Greipel comes into this event
with a strong team including Grabsch and Martin (fourth and winner of the time
trial event on Wednesday respectively).
Pros- Strong sprint, strong team, good season
Cons- Not quite as good as Cav
Other sprinters
José Joaquín Rojas - The Spanish national champion has shown good form this year,
winning the national road race and consistent high placings in the sprints in
the TdF, which meant he came second in the Green jersey competition. Could win
from a break or maybe a bunch sprint if Cav is not in the action.
Juan José Haedo - Has shown good form in the Vuelta, competently winning
a stage. Comes from a non-traditional cycling country (Argentina) and has had a
long grind to the top. This is probably his best chance to show his talent as
he is 30. He has talent but he is up against the best here.
Daniele Bennati - Has been good in the past. He is one of the many
sprinters who has been slightly forgotten with the rise and dominance of Cav
but his record is impressive. Two TdF stage victories in 2007, one from a
breakaway and one in a bunch sprint on the Champs-Élysées (the most desired
stage win for a sprinter), that included Thor Hushovd, Erik Zabel and Tom
Boonen. In addition he has points jersey wins (green jerseys) in the Giro (3
stage wins) and Vuelta (7 stage wins) as well as other races (Tour de Suisse
etc). His most recent stage win was in the Vuelta a few weeks ago, he has good
form and a decent team, with a good lead out man (Elia Viviani, a
talented youngest who has had a few decent sprint victories this year)
Others - Who may win from a breakaway/ attack/ or maybe a sprint (but
will be at a disadvantage)
Oscar Freire - For past form he would surely be the favourite, with 3
previous titles in this event (joint most wins with Merckx, Binda and Van
Steenbergen all legends of cycling) he knows what he has to do. Alas he is not
getting younger and at the age of 35 it would probably be fair to say his best
days are behind him. Freire, as with many sprinters when they get older, has
lost his edge in the sprint but become a very powerful rider and hence the
finish could suit him. I guess the aim for him is to get into a break and win a
sprint from there, which he is capable of doing. Freire has also said that if he does not win this race he will
retire, so this may well be the last chance to see this sprinting giant in
action.
Pros- He knows how its done
Cons- Old
Thor Hushovd - It seems bizarre that I have not put Thor in the
Sprinters section indeed in previous years he would have been. However, like
Freire, he has lost that edge and instead has become a very powerful rider
suited to attacks (getting in the break). The reigning world champion has had a
good season thus far, holding the Yellow jersey in the tour and winning 2
stages after a lacklustre start to the year. The distance of the race certainly
plays into his hands, as does the finish. However he may struggle to match some
of the younger sprinters in a bunch sprint.
Pros- Reigning champion, still going strong, no pressure
Cons- Lacks speed of the younger riders, small team
Peter Sagan - A rider that is incredibly hard to classify, an all
rounder who has been compared to Merckx. He can sprint, his victories in the
Tour of Poland, Tour of California and Vuelta, amongst others, testify to that.
He is consistent, his points jerseys (equivalent to the TdF green jersey) prove
that (Tour of Poland, 2x Tour of California, Paris-Nice and Tour de Sussie). He
is the current road race champion of Slovkia and was a junior world mountain
biking champion. He is only 21. Yep you read that right, he has achieved a
palmares ( a list of victories, a sort of cycling cv) that many riders would be
happy to retire on at the age of 35. Sagan can also, not that its relevant to
this course, climb well. He may not be in the 1st tier of favourites but only a
fool would rule him out. Indeed he has been mentioned as a favourite by Oscar
Freire who should know a thing or two about winning this race.
Pros- Unbelievably talented, could win from a breakaway or possibly a
bunch sprint or even a solo attack (although this is not likely)
Cons- Course is not hard enough for him to shine, weak team
Phillip Gilbert - Well he has had one hell of a season. Indeed it is
quite hard to know where to start. He won the three Ardennes classics, the
second rider to ever achieve this, he then won the Belgium national
championships followed closely by winning the first stage of this year’s TdF
and the yellow jersey with it. More recently he won the Clásica de San
Sebastián and the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec. Gilbert has been the king of
the one days races this year. He has a good acceleration but not on the scale
of Cav and other specialist sprinters ( Gilbert is a classic Puncher).
This year has been a long time coming for Gilbert, as he has had an
excellent record in all the classics for a few years, having also come third in
Milan - San Remo twice and third in the tour of Flanders twice in addition to
his two wins in the Giro di Lombardia. (In summary - he is very good!)
There are a number of options open to Gilbert a) he could risk it and go
for the sprint, its uphill which will play to his strengths and he will have
better stamina than many of the sprinters, b) attack with ~ 5-15 km to go, this
could work if, especially if he attacks on the first part of the course or c)
try and get in a break away before the final lap, the only problem being that
this could wear him out if the break away fails.
It will be interesting to see what he does.
Pros- Very good at one day races from Milan - San Remo to
Liège–Bastogne–Liège, had an outstanding year, excellent form, want this win.
Cons- Course is not hard enough for him to shine, really needs a nice
steep ramp at the end.
Last but not least ...
Edvald Boasson Hagen - A talented rider who has managed to overcome a
difficult first year and a bit with Team Sky ( due to a number of injury
problems) and win two stages of the TdF and the Eneco Tour of Benelux for a
second time. He had an excellent start to his career with numerous impressive
wins for a rider of his age ( Eneco tour 2009, Gent–Wevelgem, a stage of the
Giro, a stage of Critérium International etc). He certainly has ability, and is
best at the time trial but can also do a good sprint (he came 2nd on the
Champs-Élysées this year). If he gets in a break he could be very dangerous and
he is one of the few riders who could possibly stay off the front of a raging peloton.
Pros - V. talented, no pressure, can get into breaks
Cons- small team
No comments:
Post a Comment