Liège-Bastogne-Liège, "La Doyenne" -2012

Well due to a hectic schedule blogging has been much lighter than I would have liked over the past weeks. We have had an entertaining classics season that moved last week into the hilly classics (from the cobbled classics". We saw OPQS dominate the cobbles and no one dominant force in hilly classics so far. However we are coming to the grand finale of the classics season with Liège-Bastogne-Liège, " La Doyenne", the oldest of the one day races, having first been held in 1892 and now in its 98th edition. One of the "monuments" of cycling it is certainly prestigious and it ends the Ardennes week of hilly classics (the other two being the Amstel Gold race (AGR) and La Fleche Wallone (LFW)). It is the most interesting of these races for its extra level of difficulty, which can often see the decisive move made before the finale climb to the finish line. The amount and difficulty of the climbing in Liège-Bastogne-Liège makes it a race that is within the skill sets of the classic's specialist such as Philippe Gilbert and the GT contenders such as Andy Schlek. This year we have not seen a repeat of Gilbert's dominant 2011 performances, and the race is quite open with the possibility for a surprise winner (such as Enrico Gasparotto in last Sundays Amstel Gold Race). I will run thought the favourites a bit later in the post, first however lets take a look at the ...

Course

The course is a beast, with Liège–Bastogne–Liège often being called the toughest classic. It is 257 km with 12 categorised climbs. The first 150 km or so involves a rolling course from Liège to Bastogne (hence the name) that serves to put a good few km in the legs of the riders before the really tough part begins, this first 150 km involves 2 of the categorised climbs. After 160 (not easy) km the race starts in earnest with the Côte de Wanne, 2,7 km at 7.0 %, after this the climbs come thick and fast with the other 9 in the next 97 km. I will list these below, they tend to get steeper as the race goes on from 6.9% at the Côte de la Haute-Levée rising to 11.1 % on the Côte de Saint-Nicolas. The climbs are usually about 2 km long ranging from 1 km to 4 km. All of this serves to separate the wheat from the chaff, with smallish (sub 20) groups of riders being able to contest the finishing climbs, unlike AMG and LFW were typically bigger groups arrive at the finishing climb. It also means that stamina is very important leading to riders such as Andy Schleck having a good chance of winning (which he did in 2009). 

The decisive move of the race can often be from a way out ( km), with last years move coming from 20 km out on a climb. The Côte de la Roche aux Faucons and Côte de Saint-Nicolas climbs, 20 km and 5 km from the finish respectively provide excellent spring boards for long range attacks to favour riders such as Andy Schleck, Vincenzo Nibali etc. 

Favourites

This is a hard choice as there are a number of favourites with no outstanding candidates.

*****

  Joaquin Rodríguez 

  Joaquin "Purtio" Rodríguez had his well deserved first classics win last Wednesday after so many near misses (a good number of podiums), which can only boost his confidence before this race. He has good form at the moment and his team, Katusha, are strong as they have showed in the last week with riders such as Óscar Freire Daniel Moreno and Yuri Trofimov to assist him. He is surely the biggest favourite to win this race. He has podiumed in this race before hand with a second place in 2009. He and his team will need to be on top form and be alert if he is to win this race and they will need to shut down any long range attacks or alternatively Joaquin Rodríguez will need to attack. Given his form at the moment I guess they will get little help from the other teams. 

 ****

 Philippe Gilbert

Has had a relativity (compared to 2011, still had some decent results) disappointing   season this year, being plagued with bad form and luck with dental problems hampering his cobbled classics campaign and a crash spoiling his Milan- Sanremo. He has however been building his form throughout the week at AGR and LFW with improving performances, and with those races in his legs, he could have the perfect form for a consecutive win of this race. He has a decent team, although given the rooster of BMC maybe not as strong as it could be. Gilbert has some options when it comes to this race with the ability to win from a group or go out from a long range attack. His previous form though will mean that he will be chased and that other potential breakaway riders may not help him in a brake away.  

Damiano Cunego

Cunego's last classic's win was a while ago in 2008, his last L-B-L podium was in 2006 and his last classics podium was in 2009, he also wasn’t too impressive in the AGR at 31st across the line 47 seconds back. However, he is a rider with pedigree and his focus this year has been on another classics victory and the worlds. He has had a decent season so far with a couple of top 10's in world tour stage races (4th in Tour of the Basque Country and 6th in Volta a Catalunya) and in the last week has been in his native Italy racing in the Giro del Trentino, in which he performed well coming second overall and winning a stage. He thinks that riding this race is the best preparation for L-B-L and it has certainly put a good few climbing km in his legs which should help. He has a strong team as well with Michele Scarponi, Diego Ulissi (who scored an impressive top 10 at LFW) and Przemysław Niemiec to aid him. Much like the previous two he can win from a group at the end or an attack.

***

Vincenzo Nibali

He has a mixed last week of racing with a fairly inconspicuous performance at AGR and a decent top 10 position at LFW, which would suggest that he was using those races as a warm up for the big one. That makes sense given that L-B-L suits his skill set better than AGR and LFW. He has had an excellent season so far with a number of impressive results such as his overall win of Tirreno-Adriatico, his 3^rd place in Milan- Sanremo and his first win coming in February’s Tour of Oman. All of this indicates his form this year and would suggest good things for this L-B-L. He previous form in the classics has been decent with number of top 10’s in Milan –Sanremo, L-B-L, and the Giro di Lombardia, however he has never been able to pull off a podium in the hilly classics. Given his Palmarès, he certainly has the talent and he showed his strength in last year’s Giro di Lombardia with a brave attack from ~ 60 km out. He will need to think a bit more tactically if he is to win this race, but his willingness to attack and ability very well could, if he times it right win him the race.  It will help his cause if another team (and/or the Liqiugas team) make the race hard to isolate the other favourites. 

Frank / Andy Schleck 

I put both the Schleck brothers here because either could win. The designated team leader is Frank, but Andy’s form looked good at LFW and he is a previous winner it his race in 2009 and 3^rd in 2011. Frank has podiumed twice in this race with 2^nd in 2011 and 3^rd in 2007, with another couple of top 10’s. Neither has really done anything of note this season, with pretty lacklustre performances in the stage races they have done so far. However, this is their first target of the season being along with the Tour there big aims for the season. Andy has done a good deal of domestique work for his brother in the last week and has looked good. Frank has had a decent build up to L-B-L with 12^th and 20^th positions in AGR and LFW respectively. Given that these two aren’t that suited to Frank those are good performances and indicate a good preparation for L-B-L. The extra difficulty involved with L-B-L will play into the hands of the brothers. To compound this they will need to take advantage of the strength of their team to make the race very hard and isolate the other favourites. The best chance for either of the brothers to win is to go from the Côte de la Roche aux Faucons about 20 km out, it was this tactic that lead to Andy’s win in 2009 and both there podiums last year. Andy’s win in 2009 showed how to win, whereas the brother results in 2011 showed how to throw the race away. If they do go they have to be careful who they take with them such as Gilbert/ Rodríguez, and if there are other rider present play a much better tactical game than last year, where they gifted Gilbert through poor tactics. They will have to alternate attacks and to keep attacking to drop riders such as Gilbert. 

Samuel Sanchez  

 Having another good season with his win in the GC of the Tour of the Basque country. He hasnt won a classic thus far in his career, indeed the big one day race win on his Palmares is the 2008 olympic win. His form is good and he is a complete bike rider, given that there is no strong favorite for this race it could be his day. His team is strong and suited to the terrian.

**

Simon Gerrans

Alejandro Valverde

Ryder Hesjedal

Astana

Thomas Voeckler

Jelle Vanendert

Bauke Mollema

*

Lars Petter Nordhaug

Johnny Hoogerland

Dan Martin

Chris Anker Sørensen

Lieuwe Westra (dark horse)