Paris- Roubaix 2012 – “The Hell of the North”

So we are well into the classic season now, with the third (out of 5) monuments happening this weekend and with Paris-Roubaix we will move from the "cobbled" classics to the "hilly" classics. It has been an entertaining classics season so far, with plenty of attacks and tension. Paris-Roubaix is considered to be one of if not the most prodigious of the one day cycling races (the classics) and has throughout its 116 year history (this is the 110 edition) earned the nickname “the Hell of the North”. Paris-Roubaix consists of a 257.5km journey from Compiègne ( the race hasn’t started in Paris since 1965) and make its way to Roubaix on the French-Belgium border (right next to Lille) and it does so via 27 cobbled sections, which make the race so difficult/ special. It is in these sections that the race is blown apart and the men are separated from the boys, to gain a good position from these section you need good bike handling skill, luck and to be ideally in the top 10-20 riders at the beginning of the section (to minimise the probability of being caught behind or in a crash). In particular the Arenberg forest stretch is key, for although the race is (usually) not won by this point it is very much the case that it can be decisively lost at this point. 

The conditions at Paris- Roubaix usually swing between two gruelling extremes. If it is dry (and usually therefore sunny) the conditions are very dusty, which is exacerbated by the vehicles and riders on the route. If it is wet, it is usually extremely muddy with riders being caked in mud. Both of the above make for difficult racing and add another level of challenge to win this race.

So onto the 2012 edition, there are no changes to the route this year (although there was talk of taking out the Arenberg forest section depending on conditions) unlike the other cobbled monument (the Tour of Flanders). I will list the favourites below and rank them using a star system with 5 * being top favourite and one * being an outside chance. In summary I think it is fair to say that Tom Boonen is the man of the moment especially with Cancellara out due to injury, with his team omega pharma quickstep being the team of the moment, with 3 contenders who could win this race. Aside from Tom Boonen, Pozzato and Ballan looked good in the Tour of Flanders and Vanmarcke has looked good this season. If for any reason Boonen is out of contention then it will become a very open (and very exciting) race.

The Favourites

Tom Boonen *****

The only 5* favourite I have for this edition of Paris-Roubaix, and with good reason. It is fair to say that Boonen has been on fire this season, notching up a series of prestigious wins in the classics, along with some decent stage wins (such as his win in Paris-Nice). In addition he looked very strong in last weekend’s Tour of Flanders taking an impressive win. With his team the support that his very powerful omega-pharma quickstep can provide and with the only other possible 5* favourite Cancellara out due to a broken collarbone (fractured in 4 places) he is the overwhelming favourite to win. That said, a degree of luck is still required to win Paris-Roubaix no matter how good/ prepared you are, one wrong move, and Boonen could easily crash and end up like Cancellara. 

Filippo Pozzato ****

Pozzato has had somewhat a renaissance this year, after his lacklustre 2011. The change of team seems to have helped with his move from Team Katusha to the Pro-Continental Farnese Vini-Selle Italia. He looked good in the Tour of Flanders last week, with a couple of strong attacks and his bridging to Ballan (dragging along with him Boonen), to form the decisive move of the race. Indeed some wise commentators said he looked strong than Boonen, and his tactics were criticised, that said Pozzato is bullish, with the strong belief that he can beat Boonen in the sprint. He has past from in this race, with his 2009 second place, which incidentally Boonen won, and his previous record in the classics. I think Pozzato will try a couple of big attacks within the last 30 km in order to drop the other favourites and that would seem to be his best bet for a win, although if he is present in a group at the end he can sprint, though I don’t think he will win this way (he will then be a good bet for the podium). 

Alessandro Ballan ****

Like his compatriot above, he showed good form in last week’s Tour Flanders, with his attack forming the decisive move of the race. He will need to attack again in this race to win/podium as his sprint is not amongst the strongest of the favourites. He has podiumed in the race on a couple of occasions (2006, 2008) and given his form this year could (with a bit of luck) do so again. 

Sep Vanmarcke ****

Vanmarcke has had a good season so far, showing his potential as a future monument winner. Indeed at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, the 23 year old stunned a lot of people with his sprint that denied Boonen the victory. He has been in the mix in many of the classics and the Tour of Flanders. With Garmin, he has a strong team to back him and he can play the tactical game. 

Sylvain Chavanel/ Niki Terpstra ****

I have grouped these two riders together due to the fact that they are both on the omega-pharma quickstep team, and therefore their main priority will be to serve Boonen. It speaks volumes about the strength of the omega-pharma quickstep team that both can be considered strong favourites, and it gives the OPQS team a lot of options tactically. Both of these riders will be used to break the race up and then attack, forcing the other teams/favourites to case them down. Both of these riders have the ability and form to attack within the last 20 -30 km and solo to the finish or a least get a good gap before being caught. Both of these riders have had big victories so far in 2012, in addition to supporting Boonen's numerous victories.

Thor Hushovd ***

Thor is here because of his talent alone, he has had an awful 2012 so far and his recent form would suggest that he will be lucky to top 10 let alone win/podium this race. However given his past form in this race (a 2^nd place in 2010 and 3^rd in 2009) and his strengths as a rider, he must be considered. He was unlucky last year due to the fact that he was such a strong favourite, he was strongly marked and that his team mate Vansummeren was leading and therefore he couldn’t attack. Indeed a nice monument win is the only notable absence in   Hushovd’s Palmares, which includes amongst other achievements, the World champions jersey and the TDF green jersey. He has come close in both Milan-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix. This year there is slightly less presuure on Thor given his recent form and the fact that Ballan (both are on same team) is also a favourite for this race, in addition he has a strong team including George Hincapie to support him. 

Juan Antonio Flecha***

Has been a consistently strong classics performer for the last 10 or so years, he has notched up a number of podiums in this race before. He never seems to be able to etch out a win, and his form hasn’t been particularly strong/weak this year. 

George Hincapie**

In previous years he would have been a much stronger favoite for this race. Alas, age is starting to take its toll on this stalwart of cycling as participates in his 18^th season as a pro. I would love it if he won this year, which may be his last and he has been close on a number of previous occasions, in fact I think it’s fair to say he is the best cyclist of the last 10 years not to win this race. That said, his primary duties this year will be to use his vast experience and his strength to support Ballan/ Hushovd in their ambitions. 

Edvald Boasson Hagen **

Hagen certainly has the “engine” to win this race, with talent in spades, however since his move to Sky he hasn’t been able to convert his supreme talent to being able to win in the biggest events in cycling. One of these years he will breakthrough and win big and this maybe the year, that said looked weak in the Tour of Flanders.

Luca Paolini **  - Looked strong in the Tour of Flanders

Stijn Devolder **
John Degenkolb ** - Very talent youngster, showed strenght in Milan-Sanremo, could be darkhorse for podium

Johan Van Summeren **

Lars Bak *
Lars Boom *
Stuart O'Grady *
 Daniel Oss *

Bernie Eisel *