The Key Stages and possible unexpected Key Stages of the 2012 Tour de France
There are a number of stages in this year’s TDF that will
decide the overall. The most obvious are the two time trials. These are fairly straightforward;
the first is a hilly affair, which should see Wiggins put good time into his
rivals. The second is a long one, 53.5 km and it is at the end of the race, so
stamina and endurance over the three weeks will have an effect, possibly
limiting the time Wiggins/Evans will take out of the others. These stages aren’t
too hard to analysis; it will come to who has the most power and who is
freshest after after almost three weeks of hard racing.
Stage 1, Stage 3 and Stage 4: The TDF not be won on these
day, but it could be lost. These stages are not typical of the first week of a
TDF, they are more classic like covering hilly terrain. Valuable seconds could
be lost on the climb to the stage 1 finish in Seraing. Stage 3 could also see
GC contenders losing valuable time, a well placed attack on the final climb the
Côte du Mont Lambert, maybe from Nibali/Evans etc, followed by an aggressive
descent could cause mayhem. The GC contenders will need to be attentive. Stage
4 closely follows the coast for the first half, therefore GC riders will need
to be weary for splits due to the crosswinds. Favourites can lose minutes if
the peloton splits due to cross winds. Even
if the peloton manages to reform it is vital energy that would have been wasted
for no gain. The GC riders will need to be attentive to avoid losing possibly crucial
seconds in these stages.
Stage 7: The race for the GC begins here. This climb will
not win the TDF, but could lose it. This stage will be the first test of the
contenders abilities and we will see who is in contention. Some pundits think
that the riding will be mostly defensive. I disagree, this stage is perfect for
explosive (or petrol) climbers such as Frank Schleck and Samuel Sanchez. It is
a relatively easy mountain stage with two cat three climbs before the final
ramp. If the aforementioned riders are to do well, they will need to attack
here. The final climb is perfect for explosive (or petrol) climbers for the
following two reasons; it is relatively short, at 5.5 km and it is steep. This
means that there won’t be the time for steadier (diesel) climbers such as
Wiggins, Evans and Nibali (with lower acceleration) to grind their way back. Having
seen Schleck’s form in the Tour de Sussie, I think that he is very likely to
put in a strong attack. Doing so could gain up to 1-2 minutes, valuable time. Team
Sky will try to strangle any attacks, so any rider who wishes to attack will
need to be in a good position at the foot of the climb. However, it would not
be unusual if the GC contenders spent this climb watching and testing each
other, saving their energy for later in the race. We could see a couple GC contenders
out of the running on this stage.
from the ASO
Stage 8: This stage should be non decisive. However, it is
tough, and it has a tasty cat. 1 climb within the last 20 km, followed by a
descent. It reminds me of stage 6 in last year’s Vuelta. Given the importance
of taking time off the TT specialists and the descending weakness of some of
the GC contenders I would not be surprised to see Liqiugas-Cannondale, possible
joined by Evans, Sanchez and Hesjedal, try something on the descent here. It probably
won’t work, but if it does could gain them valuable seconds, plus a stage win
(probably for Peter Sagan).
from the ASO
Stage 10: The stage profile below shows that this is a tough
stage, the Grand Colombier makes its overdue debut in the TDF. It is a beast of
a climb, 18 km at an average of 6.9 %. The profile of the Grand Colombier is
also below
from climbbybike.com
This is the stage after the TT, it will be very clear by now
who needs to claw back time. This is a mountain stage, but a very neutral one
if no attacks are made. There are other harder, more decisive mountain stages
to come, and this is a hard stage, so the GC contenders may get there team to
ride tempo (at a high pace) to crack any of the weaker contenders during the stage,
the weaker contenders could make their way back, but will waste energy to do
so. This is what the conventional wisdom would say. However, if you look at the
profile, a GC rider who is a good climber and descender could take good time
today (Evans, Sanchez, Nibali). Even Frank Schleck could take good time today,
taking time on the climbs and staying neutral/losing little time on the
descents. If a GC contender attacks, it could cause all hell to break lose.
from the ASO
Stage 11: Another key mountain stage, this time however it
is a standard TDF mountain stage with the legendry and commonly used col de la Madeleine
and the Croix de Fer. It is a very tough stage with four climbs, two HC (beyond
categorisation), one cat. 2 and one cat.1. The climbers will need to attack
today to gain valuable seconds. Given the difficulty of the stage I doubt there
will be any long range attacks, but we could be surprised. If we were to see a long range attack it would
come on the Croix de Fer. The finish stage is a mountain top finish on the La
Toussuire. This is a long steady climb, 19 km at an average of 6 %, with a max
gradient of 8.8%. This climb is perfectly suits to Bradley Wiggins, as we saw
in the 2011 Vuelta, he can set a high steady pace, effectively time trialling
up the mountain. He will have his strong Team Sky teammates such as Richie
Porte, Michael Rogers and Chris Froome to aide him in this. I suspect taht
attacking on this climb will be difficult due to the pace set by Team Sky. If
we are to see attacks they will probably come in three forms; a long range
attack on the Croix de Fer, a long range attack on the technical descent of the
Mollard or a attack in the last 2-3 km of the Toussuire. The most plasubale is
an attack in the last km of the Toussuire. By the end of today we will have a
good idea of the top 10 and the podium.
from the ASO
Stage 16: The penultimate mountain stage, this is a stage
designed to force climbers to attack from a long way out. It should be special,
and is certainly one to watch. It features four classic Pyrenean climbs,
steeped in TDF history. The Aubisque, the Tourmalet, the Col d’Aspin and the Peyresourde,
two HC climbs and two cat.1 climbs, the stage finishes after a hair raising
descent from the summit of the Peyresourde to Bagnères-de-Luchon, finishing at
the foot of the descent. This is a stage that strongly favours Nibali and
Sanchez. Given the profile of the stage we could see attacks as early as the Tourmalet,
although the safest option would be on the Peyresourde. Wiggins and Evans, plus
their respective teams, should be able to handle these climbs well enough if this
stage is rode in traditional fashion (i.e. attacks left to the Peyresourde). Therefore
to crack these riders a number of early attacks will be needed, given the final
mountain stage and the TT, some riders may have no other choice. Another factor
to be considered at this stage is fatigue, the riders will be tired by now,
those who have a little bit extra in the tank could take strong gains.
from the ASO
Stage 17: The Final mountain stage, a mountain top finish,
into Peyresourde again. This is a stage more suited to pure climbers who want
to go on a long range attack (as opposed to riders who are good climbers and
good descenders). The Port de Balès looks
good for such an attack, due to its difficultly. It is 18.87 km at an average
of 6.3 %, but more importantly it has a number of steep ramps, ideal for an
attack and for the pure climbers to put time into Evans and Wiggins. The stage
finishes on a double summit of the Peyresourde, the first part climbs using the
standard TDF route to Peyresourde, the summit of this is 6 km from the finish,
there is then a short descent and an ascent to the finish. This looks ideal for
a late attack. After this stage, the only important stage is the relatively straightforward
TT stage, the podium and top 10 should be easy to predict after stage 17,
although the order within the podium and top ten not so much.
from the ASO
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