Tour de Suisse – Review

The Tour de Suisse ended today with Portuguese rider from Movistar’s Rui Costa raking the overall honours. I will not go through stage by stage, I will pick out some key points and good rides. However, this race a review is more useful insofar as this is another key Tour de France warm up race; and indeed the last major race before the TDF which starts in 2 weeks time. Many riders come in fresh from training, looking to build form. Predicting TdF form from the Tour de Suisse is a dark art, but I believe that a number of conclusions can be drawn. 

Overall it was a good race, with more exciting racing and a better parcours (route) than the Dauphiné. The points, competition was won in impressive fashion by Peter Sagan, who showed his very strong form by taking 4 stage wins out of the total of 9 stages. With this sort of form, his prospects of gaining the Green jersey in the TDF look very good. The Best Swiss Rider Classification was won by Mathias Frank and the Mountains Classification was won by Matteo Montaguti, who adds this jersey to the Mountains jersey he won earlier this year in the Criterium International. 

Key riders for the Tour

·         Frank Schleck – The other Schleck brother put in a strong performance in this race. Seeing as his brother Andy is out of the TDF with a fractured pelvis, F. Schleck will be the leader of the Radioshack- Nissan-Trek team. His climbing is looking very good and he showed a willingness to attack from a long way out, both of which will help him in the TDF. His performance in the long TT was better than expect of F. Schleck. However, he still lost 01:37 in the 34.3km time trial to Kessiakoff (Cancellara was with two seconds of this), if will extrapolate this to the TDF; he could expect to lose a minimum of 4:45 to the likes of Evans/Wiggins. This is a lot of time, and I would be surprised if he could take this sort of time out of those riders in the mountains. He is also the favourite for the King of the Mountains jersey in this year’s TDF.

·         Alejandro Valverde – Although he did not manage to gain a top 10 position Valverde showed that he had good form. The main reason he didn’t get a top 10 position was that he did a lot of work for his teammate Rui Costa, who won the race overall. He a sizeable chunk of time in the time trial, which would suggest that he will struggle to win the TDF, however his strong form indicates at least top 10, if not at least top 5 position.

 

·         Levi Leipheimer – Before his unfortunate collision with a car in Spain in April, resulting in a fractured left fibula, Leipheimer was looking like one of the top 3 favourites to win this years’ TDF, due to his good form. This race has confirmed that he has recovered most of his form. Leipheimer was climbing well. His TT was relatively poor compared to his previous form in this area this year, however there is still time to improve during the next two weeks and the first half of the TDF.

 

·          Robert Gesink – Gesink didn’t show much in the mountain stages, however his TT was very solid, only losing 27 seconds over 34.5 km, and he still has time to improve. His 4^th place overall shows he has good form, it is also likely he was sandbagging and not wanting to expend too much energy before the TDF. With this performance he looks good for the TDF win/.podium. This race also showed the strength of his team Rabobank, with Steven Kruijswijk and Laurens ten Dam doing impressive long turns on the front in the Mountains. Should Gesink falter in the Tour, Steven Kruijswijk has shown in the Tour de Sussie that his form is strong.

·         Tom Danielson – Danielson performed solidly in the Tour de Suisse and was rewarded with a 7^th place overall in the final General Classification. His time trialling was satisfactory and he climbed well. Could repeat his top 10 place in the Tour this year.

                                                                                                                                                     

Key riders who will not be at the Tour

·          Mikel Nieve – Put in a strong performance, especially when you consider that he is still recovering from the Giro, which was only 2-3 weeks ago, where he finished in 10^th . He rode bravely throughout, going on the attack on a number of occasions. His aggression was rewarded with 13^th place and 3^rd place on stage 2.

 

·         Roman Kreuziger – Gained 9^th overall after a difficult Giro, shows strong will and good recovery.

Impressive Rides

·         F.Schleck  – Schleck rode aggressively throughout taking back a good deal of the time he lost to Costa in the TT. He gained 2^nd place on the 2^nd stage and 4^th on the 8^th stage, in the process taking time out of a lot of the other riders, some of whom will be his advertises in the Tour. Most impressive was his long range attack in stage nine from over 40 km out, which, although ultimately fruitless, showed a winning attitude which the Schleck brothers have not often demonstrated in the past.

·         Michael Albasini – Albasini’s stage 8 victory was an impressive endeavour. He spent a long 133 km out in the breakaway. With two well timed attacks on the 2 final climbs at 28 and 8 km to go he shed his breakaway companions and hung on to win the stage by over a minutes, with the full force of the Rabobank team and the race favourites chasing after him. He showed great strength and good tactical ability.  

·         Rui Costa  – Costa’s stage 2 ride won him this race. He showed strong climbing ability by putting in a well timed and decisive move with ~ 2 km to go. He showed good all-round ability with his performance in the rest of the race, with a good TT, strong climbing and strong resolve. He could very well be a GT rider for the future .

·         Fredrik Kessiakoff – Not many riders can say that they have beaten Cancellara in a TT, Kessiakoff can. Very strong performance against the clock, which given his climbing ability could make him a threat in a GT at some point.  

·         Fabian Cancellara – Cancellara has just returned to racing after ~ 2 months out with a quadruple fracture of his collarbone. He comes back and gets second in the Prologue and second in the 34 km TT. This shows the massive talent that this rider holds. He will be remember as one of the best TT riders of all time when he retires.

·         Peter Sagan – What can you say ! 4/9 stage wins, all the designated stages for the sprinters. The finishes were also as diverse as you can get for a sprinter, with out and out sprinting on a flat, wide, straight road to long power sprints in twisty, tight roads. Sagan has shown that he has the speed, power, knowledge and bike handling to perform on any sprinting stage. This race, along with his performance in the Tour of California shows that he is a very strong favourite for the Green Jersey this year.

Critérium du Dauphiné – Review

I didn’t get around to previewing this race, as I was busy. I will not go through stage by stage but will pick out some key points /good rides and reference these to the upcoming TDF. I will do another very similar post in abut weeks time for the Tour of Switzerland another key TDF warm up race.

The Critérium du Dauphiné ended today with Wiggins confirming his status as a very strong favourite by winning it.  However, this race a review is more useful insofar as this is a key Tour de France warm up race and many riders come in fresh from training, looking to build form. Predicting TdF form from the Critérium is a dark art, but I believe that a number of conclusions can be drawn. 

Riders who looked good

·         Bradley Wiggins is very strong and probably top favourite for the TDF, his time trialling is sublime, and his climbing looks as good as any other rider in the peloton on top form bar the Schlecks and Contador.

·         Team Sky are very strong, look at the top 10; 1^st, 2^nd, 4^th and 9^th. All of this was whilst they were working for Wiggins (who came 1^st). In Boasson-Hagen, Porte, Rogers and Froome, they have riders who can control the race in the mountains. All of these riders plus numerous others at Sky can control the race on the float as well.

·         Cadel Evans is on track; prior to this race Cadel was having a poor year, and that he would not be a presence in the TDF. This has been shown to be very incorrect with his gutsy second place. He is still not at his best but with six weeks until the TDF he will be at his highest level on the start line in Liege.

·         Cadel and others will attack in the TDF; He showed on a couple of occasions in the Dauphiné, that he is willing to attack on the downhill. If he is willing to attack when the road goes down, then you can be sure that Samuel Sanchez and Vincenzo Nibali will also be willing. The descents could make the difference this year, with a number of tasty ones in this year’s TDF course. This is the big threat to Wiggin’s chance of winning as if Cadel improves as much as he does last year, he will not expect to lose too much time to Wiggins in the TT.

 

·        Wilco Kelderman is worthy of the hype. He has been called the new Eddy Merckx and this race has shown why. At the tender age of 21 he has managed 8^th in one of the biggest stage races in cycling against strong competition. His time trialling is excellent with 4^th in the 53 km TT here, only 1:30 behind Wiggins, who is best in the world at the moment (until Martin regains form). His TT skill and climbing will only get better as he gets older. One to watch

·         Jurgen Van Den Broeck is looking good; He has good form with 6 weeks to go. If he continues to build form he will be a threat at the TDF, only losing 2 minutes on Wiggins in the TT. He is a very strong climber and may well be able to put time into Wiggins/Evans in the Mountains of the TDF.

 

·         Brajkovic, Coppel and Rolland all seem to have decent form, any could post top 10 rides in the TDF

Riders who need to work

·         Andy Schleck is in poor form at the moment, and he will need to do a lot of work in the next 6 weeks. He was unlucky with crashes and punctures marring his Dauphiné. This will have robbed him of some “live fire” race training, making his TD preparation weaker. In addition, he has had very little chance this year to improve his TT in a race situation.

·         Vincenzo Nibali isn’t in poor form; however he needs to do some work to get into the excellent form he was showing in the first part of the season. His TT will need to improve if he is to pose a podium threat in TDF. His climbing will also need to improve, but he is on the same level/better than many of the other TDF contenders when it comes to this attribute.

·         Denis Menchov; much the same as Nibali. That said the “Silent Assassin” has a way of hiding his form all season until the TDF.  

·         Samuel Sanchez has very poor luck, he finished the race so has some valuable racing experience in his legs.  I would expect him to be in good form at the start of the TDF

Impressive Rides

Boasson-Hagen managed, alongside the colossal amount of work he did for Wiggins, to get a stage win, showcasing his expansive talent. Daniel Moreno, managed two excellent stage wins, impressive given his work rate at the Giro this year, showing that he is a strong rider in his own right. Luke Durbridge further confirmed that he is a TT beast of the future with his prologue win. Sarmiento showed good form and will be a valuable teammate for Nibali in the TDF.

Last but not least a word of (extra) praise for Wiggins. He has won both the big French stage races in 2012 and has joined an elite group of multiple Critérium du Dauphiné winners. In addition he has won the Tour de Romandie this year, giving him a very impressive record this year before the TDF has even started.

Giro d’Italia - A review

So 3 days ago on Sunday, the first, hardest and most beautiful of the Grand Tours came to an exhilarating conclusion. First of all, before the analysis begins, congratulations to Ryder Hesjedal for winning the Giro. He was the strongest rider throughout and deserved the win. It is a great win for Hesjedal, Canada (there first GT win and podium), Garmin and clean cycling. In addition commiserations to Joaquim Rodriguez, who rode a very strong race and would have been a deserving winner and Mark Cavendish who missed out on the points Jersey by 1 point. 

There are a number of points to discuss about this Giro and to review. 

Things we learnt

One of the first big points to discuss was the very strong performance of Hesjedal the winner and the inability of the big boys to crack him. Throughout the Giro we were waiting for the big attack/s from Basso and Scarponi, however these never came. I think it is fair to conclude that Basso pined all his hopes on grinding Hesjedal of his wheel. Alas for Basso, Hesjedal was too strong. In all fairness it could be that Basso wasn’t as strong as he used to be, for it was a tactic that worked in 2010 against strong rivals such as Cadel Evans (winner of TDF in 2011). Basso is now 34 and will turn 35 in December this year, just before the start of the next season, so it perhaps is fair to say his best days might be behind him. In addition, his preparation this year was hampered by pre Giro illnesses and crashes. Scarponi also pined all his hopes on Hesjedal cracking, and when that failed his attacks were not enough to drop Hesjedal. Given his lack of acceleration and weakness in the time trial the inability to crack Hesjedal always meant that winning would be difficult. Liqiugas’s tactics also saw to it that Scarponi was worn down and therefore his ability to attack hard was stunted.   

Another key point is that riders like Hesjedal should never be underestimated. There were probably a couple of opportunities in the first and second weeks to take time out of Hesjedal, but these were not taken as the other favourites were more worried about Basso. This proved crucial in the end as Hesjedal won by only 16 seconds. In addition Hesjedal’s team, Garmin-Barracuda were given an easy time throughout, due to that fact that Liqiugas assumed responsibility for the favourites and expended a huge amount of effort trying to control the race and hunt down attacks by riders such as Cunego. This meant that there were exhausted in the key final week of the race and that Garmin were fresh. In addition the strong pace set by Liqiugas throughout the mountain stages helped weaken Hesjedal’s rivals, meaning that riders such as Rodriguez who depended on attacking hard numerous times were hampered in their efforts. Many have questioned the tactic of Liqiugas, but I think that they were partly justifiable in that they were the best tactics for Basso to win and that they were riding positively for a Basso win. When it came to the crunch Basso didn’t have the firepower to drop the other favourites. Where I think Liqiugas went wrong was that they didn’t adapt to the changing facts quick enough. After Cervinia or at the latest Pian dei Resinelli, it should have been realised that Hesjedal was a very serious threat and the work should have been left to Garmin.

All this said this Giro showed that Liqiugas are a very strong team, with a good number of talent riders who can perform on flat and mountainous terrain. 

 

It is clear from his performance that Hesjedal is a very good rider, has capability to podium/win tour. He had shown previously in his career that he had the necessarily attributes to do well, with good climbing and time trailing. However having these attributes doesn’t mean that you can podium/win in Grand Tours, with the added pressure and stamina needed to achieve this, to not have a bad day and always be present in the crucial selections. Hesjedal passed this test with flying colours and looked comfortable throughout, even when out under severe pressure by de Gendt. It is fair to say that Hesjedal’s job and Garmin’s job was made a bit easier by Liqiugas, but I think given his ability he would have won even if that hadn’t been the case. 

Now onto Thomas de Gendt; who rode onto the podium with one of the greatest Grand Tour performances that I can remember (so since 1993). Thomas de Gendt was an interesting rider coming into this season and indeed this Giro. I had him down as a decent rider in my 2012 team preview, but I hadn’t anticipated his improvement in Grand Tour’s and I didn’t have him down in my Favourites for the Giro. In hindsight I should have as he has always been a good time trialist and has had decent performances in Mountain stages before (Alpe d'Huez 2011 TDF). He came in with the aim of developing his skill in GT’s and achieved this throughout with a top 10 placing going into the critical final 3 days, this alone would have marked him out as a rider to watch for the future. However, his performance in the stage to the Passo dello Stelvio was stunning. It was a brave move as it came from ~ 50 km out, he had a good place in the general classification. He took advantage of the hesitation in the leading group to build a good lead on the valley road leading to the final climb of the Stelvio, using his strong TT skills and a team mate to good effect. He then put in a massive effort to keep a high pace on the climb, measuring his effort well to build and maintain a strong gap until the last 2 or so km, after which he lost a small amount of time. To be able to pull of this sort of performance shows great talent, with strong climbing ability and good self awareness. Once in this position his strong time trialling saw that he gained a podium place. 

As well as showing us the talent of de Gendt, his performance also highlights a number of other facts. Along with Andy Schleck’s performance in stage  18 of last year’s TDF, it shows that bravery is rewarded in Grand Tours and that long attack’s can be very effective and could win races. It also shows that having a full skill set more important than ever, with the ability to descend well and go strong on the flat valley roads can be the difference between a top 10 and a win/podium. The other very important conclusion is that teams are not as important as they used to be. In previous times the other riders would have had more support in chasing down such an attack, rendering such attacks as futile and energy wasting. However, when Hesjedal was relying on his team mates Christian Vande Velde and Peter Stetina the gap wasn’t closing, in fact towards the end it started getting bigger. In the end it was left upto to Hesjedal himself to deal with the de Gendt problem. 

A final conclusion is that the Giro is still an awesome race. It is in some ways a more “pure” cycling race than the Tour de France, with a great skill set needed, more diverse terrain and more exciting racing. This year’s course was great and lead to a lot of great racing.  A few words of praise have to be said for Michele Acquarone and RCS, the organisers of the race. They have run a very good and exciting race, in addition they have done a lot of good work in making the race more accessible with good promotion and an innovative openness, with a regular blog explaining decisions made by them and giving an insight into the running and organisation of a bike race. The organisers have made a very appreciate effort to listen and respect the fans, giving them an input into the course of the penultimate stage to the Passo dello Stelvio.

Riders for the Future 

The Giro and Vuelta are often where promising young riders are blooded into Grand Tours, giving the viewers the chance to see the winners of the future first show there potential. This year was no different with a number of riders showing strong talent. I will go through a few now, this is not a comprehensive list. 

Sergio Henao

Sergio Henao put in a very decent first GT’s performance to finish 9^th. This is a good sign that this talked about, talented Colombian will live up to the hype. He still will be a rider to consider in every GT he rides from now and at the age of 24, there will be a few. He has shown very strong climbing ability and a good time trailing ability. 

Rigoberto Uran

Henao’s compatriot and team mate on the Sky team also put in a strong performance with very strong climbing ability and a good time trailing ability. His consistency was good, with only a couple of bad days’ were he lost a couple of minutes. The more he rides the strong he will get and the better his consistency will be. He will very probably be a future GT winner.

Diego Ulissi

I have talked about Ulissi a number of times on this blog. This Giro only reinforces my opinion that he will be a GT/hilly classics rider for the future. He is still very young in cycling terms, 22, but he gained a respectable 21^st place (4^th in the young riders classification), all the more impressive given that he was a domestique for Scarponi/Cunego and he went into a number of mountain breakaways, expending a good deal of energy in the process.  

Matteo Rabottini

Rabottini’s performance in stage 15, that yielded him the stage win was nothing short of epic. He showed great climbing talent in being able to ride solo over difficult terrain for 150 km and great tactical ability in marking Rodriguez when he was caught, latching onto his wheel and timing his effort perfectly to out sprint one of the strongest uphill riders in cycling. This stage win formed the basis of his King of the Mountains competition success, and he rode well and bravely to win that competition and it was a well deserved win. He is only 24, and with the climbing and tactical ability he showed during this race he has the potential to do great things. 

Damiano Caruso

Another 24 year old who rode very strongly this year with 5^th in the young riders classification. On the face of it, his performance might not look that strong gaining only 24^th, however this has to be put into context. He did a huge amount of work for Basso, destroying the peloton and narrowing it down to a select group. In addition he was often present, working for Basso when the key 5-10 men group of favourites had been formed. Had he not had to do all of this work, he would have had a much stronger result. He has strong climbing ability and decent time trialling. With Nibali possible moving teams next season, he migh have the chance to shine.

Andrea Guardini

Andrea Guardini has been much talked about by the Italian press for a couple of years now as the sprinter for the future. With his stage win in Vedelago, impressively beating Cavendish in a fair sprint showed why. On his day he is very quick. However as the earlier stages of the Giro showed, he has work to do on his positioning for sprints and his general stamina, both of which need to improve if he is to fulfil his full potential. However at the age of 22 there is plenty of time to do this. 

Tom-Jelte Slagter

Was the rider who provided any sort of success for Rabobank in this Giro. Althoug he didn’t podium on any stages, he showed strong ability into the stage finish in Assisi, which suggests he is a man of the future for the hilly classics. He rode very strongly and if he had more experience and tactical knowledge, he would have timed his effort more effectively and could well have won the stage,

Taylor Phinney

Showed his talent by a very strong performance in the prologue, winning convincingly. He is still only 21 so has time to develop and a GT this early in his career will help him in that. He may well have won the final time trial if it wasn’t for a guiding police motorbike who took a wrong turn. He is a very strong and powerful rider. Is too early to tell his full potential. 

Gianluca Brambilla 

Only 24 years of age, Brambilla put in a strong performance this year finishing 13^th. He has strong climbing ability and therefore could be a future GT winner. 

The Course

The way that the World Tour system works in cycling has been a problem for the Giro in previous years with teams send poor squads. This wasn’t the case this year, with the teams respecting the Giro. Almost all the teams had good Giro’s with aggressive riding, stage wins, classification jersey’s etc. This was good to see.

Giro d'Italia 2012, the first grand tour of the year.

Introduction

So it is that time of year already, the classics season has passed and we are onto the Grand Tours. The first of these is the Giro d'Italia (tour of Italy), second only to the Tour de France (TDF) in stage racing terms. It is a certainly a magnificent race featuring beautiful countryside, exciting racing and harsh terrain. The Giro d'Italia is one of the oldest races in cycling with this being its 95^th edition since first being held in 1909. Much like the TDF, it was founded to promote a sports newspaper, the Gazzetta dello Sport, which still runs the event to this day. It is different from the TDF is a number of subtle ways, mostly due to the geography of Italy. For a start it is much hillier/mountainous than the TDF, and the nature of the climbs tends to be different. Whilst the Giro has some similar mountain stages to the tour, especially in the Alps, it also features the Dolomites prominently. The Dolomites are much steeper than the Alps, with average gradients between 10-15 % rather than the 5-10 % in the Alps.

In addition the Giro has many short and steep climbs, such as those featured in the Ardennes classics of 10% + and around 10 km, these are perfect for puncheurs such as Philippe Gilbert or Joaquim Rodríguez. Theses climbs are dotted frequently throughout the course, and provide good opportunities for attacking, therefore making the race harder to control for a team than the TDF. In addition the Giro tends to have more technical descents, which can win or lose the race (see Paolo Savoldelli’s win of the 05 Giro). Another big difference is that the Giro has time bonus’s of 10,8,6 seconds for 1^st,2^nd,3^rd at the stage finish and these bonuses can be vital to winning the race. This year the Giro is hosting the start of the race outside Italy, this time in Denmark, with the first and second stages starting in Herning, with the opening stage on the 5th of May and the race coming to a close with a time trial on the 27th of May.

The Jersey’s 

It is worthwhile explaining the Jerseys of the Giro as they are different colours from those in the Tour.

Maglia Rosa – The pink jersey – Leader of the Race 

This is the same as the Yellow Jersey of the TDF, it is awarded to rider who has the lowest cumulative time (i.e. the quickest) at that point in the race. Is pink due to the paper that Gazzetta dello Sport was printed on. The third most desired jersey in cycling after the Yellow (TDF) and Rainbow (world champion) jerseys. 

The Blue Jersey – Climber jersey 

A change of colour this year, from the traditional green, at the behest of the sponsors of this particular jersey.  This is the “climber’s jersey” with the contributing points awarded on the summit’s of the mountains covered in the race. There are 5 categories of climbs ranking from 4^th (easiest) to HC (hardest) at which different points are awarded. 

The Red Jersey – The points jersey

Is the equivalent of the sprinters Green Jersey in the TDF, is awarded to the rider who gains the greatest number of points. Points are awarded at certain sections of the stage and at the stage finish. Unlike the TDF, is not just a jersey for sprinters, as equal points are awarded at the end of each stage. Often this jersey can be won by the same rider who wins the overall Pink Jersey, an all-rounder or even a climber.

The White Jersey – Best young rider

Fairly simple as the same colour as the TDF equivalent. Is awarded to the rider with the lowest cumulative time (i.e. the quickest) under the age of 26.

  

Favourites

This year there is no outstanding favourite, unlike last year, but a number of strong contenders.

 

*****

Ivan Basso

A previous two time winner of this race, I would say that he is the favourite to win this year. He has a strong team in the form of Liquigas who will be able to support him well and the strongest domestique in Sylvester Szmyd, who can tear a race apart and still be present when only the other favourites are present. He has struggled for form this season with injuries and crashes but has seen a strong improvement in the last month or so. He is said to be strong after a training camp in April and in the build up races Giro del Trentino and Tour of Romandie. In addition he has the first week or so of the Giro to build up his form to peak level. He usally starts slowly in Grand Tours to unleash his maximum in the final week. Basso relies on his strong climbing to win and he isn’t noted as a brilliant time trialist. Basso is a so called “diesel” climber with the ability to set a scorching tempo that drops other riders of his wheel. Given his rivals his weakness in time trailing won’t be that much of a problem. His 7^th in last year’s tour shows that he still has top level talent and he will be motivated to win this race, as it could be his last chance. 

Michele Scarponi

Last year’s winner, post-CAS suspension of Alberto Contador, his has had success in this race before. In 2010 he came 4^th behind that year’s winner Ivan Basso. He has a strong team in Lampre-ISD, although with a possible problem that I will come onto later. This team will be able to offer decent support for his ambitions to win. Scarponi is a strong climber, with decent, but not brilliant, time trialling ability. His form this season has been good with solid performances in Tirreno–Adriatico, Liege-Bastogne-Liege and a solid, if unremarkable Giro del Trentino. 

****

Damiano Cunego

This is the possible problem I mentioned earlier. Cunego is on the same team as Scarponi. He has been included in the squad on the premise of winning stages, however that is a bit dodgy. For a start he has won this race before back in 2004 (although he hasn’t been on the podium of a Grant Tour since). In addition, he showed he still has class in Grand Tours by getting a good 6^th place in last year’s TDF, despite his poor time trailing. He has had a good season, with a win in the Giro del Trentino with a strong placing overall (5^th) and strong results in the Tour of the Basque Country and the Volta a Catalunya (4^th and 6^th). Given his good form and talent he could easily be the leader of a number of teams. There could be a possible clash between Cunego and Scarponi if they are both within striking distance of the win, with either unwilling to help the other. On the other hand there are tactical advantages to this, with Cunego and Scarponi being able to do the 1-2 and force their rivals on the defensive.

Frank Schleck

Schleck is a last minute replacement for this race, with Radioshack-Nissan-Trek’s first choice, Jakob Fulsang out due to injury, it was this teams plan to reserve Frank Schleck for the TDF to help his brother. This is a good opportunity for Frank, who has in the past neglected the Giro in favour of the TDF, with only one prior appearance in 2005 resulting in a fairly unremarkable 42^nd place overall. Since this last appearance he has gone on to reach the higher echelons of cycling, with a couple of TDF stage wins, a number of TDF top 10’s and a TDF podium, all of which he gained whilst being a domestique for other riders. He is actually much more suited to the Giro than the TDF due to his strong climbing ability and poor time trialling. He has an okay team to support him, although it is not as strong as Liqiugas, Lampre and Astana. His form this season has been disappointing, with him underperforming in the Ardennes, but he has time in this race to build up before the mountains start. In addition he doesn’t have his brother with him, which is an advantage as it will give him no distractions and will make him a more ruthless contender. 

John Gadret

Gadret’s Giro last year was a breakthrough ride, with him building on the promise he had previously shown to get a podium position. His 3^rd place in 2011 shows he has talent and with the confidence this gives him he could well win this year. Gadret’s journey through cycling has been an interesting one, with the majority of his career focussed on cyclo-cross rather than road racing. This is a shame given the talent and potential he has shown throughout his career, and at the age of 33 this maybe one of his last chances to put a GT on his Palmarès. His team, AG2R, isn’t the strongest, which may hamper him. His form this season has been remarkable, but solid. He is a good climber and a decent time trialist the latter of which will be a big advantage in this years Giro. 

Roman Kreuziger

Kreuziger was overworked last year and previously in his career he has had to be a domestique for other riders (mainly Nibali and Basso). These two factors explain why his Palmarès don’t fully explain his talent, which he has in bucketfuls. I first became aware of Kreuziger, when at the age 22 he came a brilliant 12^th in the TDF. This was one of a number of strong results that came at a young age (for a cyclist), and I am fairly confident that before the end of his career hill will podium/win a number of grand tours, including the TDF. In last year’s Giro he came 5^th, winning the best young riders jersey. He is due a big result in the GT’s and this could be his year. He is an all round rider with strong climbing and decent time trialling. Kreuziger has had good form this year with a solid season, he has had a podium at Trieno-Adriano, top 10’s in Giro Del Trentino, Tour of Romandie and Strade Bianche. He has a strong team in Astana with experience and competent domestiques such as Tiralongo, Kessiakoff and Kevin Seeldraeyers. 

***

Joaquim Rodríguez

I was tempted to put Rodríguez as a 4 star favourite and may regret putting him in the 3 star category, he is certainly borderline. Rodríguez came 4^th in last year’s edition of the Giro and has had many good Grand Tour performances in the past. He has had a really good year with his first classics win in La Fleche Wallonne, 2^nd in the Tour of the Basque Country and 6^th in Trieno-Adriano. So he clearly has form this season and has shown good GT ability in the past. In addition he has a decent team which will be able to provide good support. Rodríguez is a pure climber/Puncher with a very strong acceleration, however, for a GC rider, he has very poor time trialling skills. He will be able to attack on the mountain stages, but more importantly on the hilly stages, of which there are a number in the Giro (in almost all editions due to the geography of Italy) and take time. That said, the course is more balanced this year and won’t favour a pure climber as much as last year. 

José Rujano

Rujano is one of the best climbers around at the moment. He, however has spent most of his career on Pro-continental teams and therefore missed a lot of big races. He has had a history of success at the Giro, numerous stage wins, a 3^rd place in 2005and 6^th last year.  

**

Domenico Pozzovivo

He has been in the top ten previously in this race and he is a proffiecent climber. He has had good form this season, winning the Giro del Trentino. His team isn’t great but as he isn’t a massive favourite it doesn’t need to be. 

Ryder Hesjedal

Hesjedal is at a cross roads in his career. He managed an excellent 6^th place in the 2010 TDF, but hasn’t managed anything of real note either side of that performance. He has talent sure, this is seen by his TDF performances and the number of stage race top 10’s he has accumulated, but is it enough to perform at the highest level? That is in question. He has targeted this race, and has shown good form in the Ardennes classics. He is a decent climber, although not on the same level as many of the favourites and, like all Garmin riders, a good time trialist. He has a decent team, with strong riders such as Christian Vande Velde to support him and they should gain him a few seconds over his other rivals in the team time trial. At the age of 31 Hesjedal is running out of time to win a GT. In fact most of the above also applies to Christian Vande Velde, who is 34 and has had 2 top 10’s in the TDF. 

*

Marco Pinotti

Marco Pinotti has had a top 10 in Giro d'Italia before, with 9^th in the 2010 edition. He is a very good time trialist, having been Italian national time trial Champion on 5 occasions. He can climb as well, although he is not on the same level as a number of the other favourites. This year he is on the BMC team, so he will have some decent support. In addition, he no longer has to work for a sprinter, as in previous years when he had to work of Cavendish, so it is that case that he can conserve energy. 

Mikel Nieve

Nieve is a strong climber who has had two of top 10’s in the GT’s before, including the 2011 Giro. He has spent most of his career working for other riders, mainly Igor Anton, so he has a good opportunity to work for himself here. His time trailing isn’t strong. His main aim will be stage wins, but he should find himself in the top 10 and could challenge for a top 5, even podium if lucky. 

Rigoberto Urán

Benat Intxausti    

Marzio Bruseghin

Course

The Giro is much less harsh this year with a more balanced course than the previous few editions due to a change of race director. This will mean that the pure climbers will be at less of an advantage. There again there aren’t many contenders that are strong (let alone very strong) time trialist, so it will be the climbing that will be key to this race. There are 5 officially designated mountain stages, with 6 medium mountain (hilly) stages, 7 flat stages, two rest days, and two time trials, one a team and one an individual. The course starts in Demark this year, and stays there for 3 days before moving back to Italy. With the rebalancing of the Giro there are many more opportunities for the sprinters this year, with a strong field of sprinters present.  

Sprinters

 It is worth pointing out again here that the point jersey in the Giro isn’t necessarily for the sprinters, with equal points available for each stage meaning that you can very conceivable get riders such as Mark Cavendish and Damiano Cunego competing for it. This year we once again have a very strong field of sprinters and, as opposed to last year, they will have ample opportunity to compete, with 7 stages + possibly ending in a sprint finish. We have almost all the big sprinters here with the exception, ironically, of the Italian great Alessandro Petacchi. I will list them below. 

Mark Cavendish

The best sprinter of his generation, very possibly of all time. He has had a relatively disappointing season, after a promising start with wins in Qatar, Tirreno–Adriatico and Kuurne–Brussels–Kuurne. He seems to have lost his form after a disappointing Milan-Sanremo, one of his season’s targets. In combination with this is the fact that he tends to have a slow start in winning stages at the grand tours, so it will probably take a couple of sprint stages before he manages to get his first win. But once he gets his first win the combination of his confidence and form will mean that he will be close to unbeatable. He has a strong squad to support him with the British Trio of Peter Kennaugh, Geraint Thomas and Ben Swift fresh from the track with explosive power and the ever dependable Eisel, Flecha and Stannard to control the breakaways. It is doubtful that Cavendish will finish the Giro though as, like many sprinters, he will probably decided to leave early once the sprints have finished and the mountains have started. This will be to preserve his form for the rest of the season. 

Mark Renshaw

Cavendish’s former lead out man is now riding for himself and he has had his first win of the season in thr Tour of Turkey. That should give him confidence, he is a good sprinter, but no one is yet that sure how good as due to having to work for others for most of his career he has never had the opportunity to prove himself. In addition he has had a poor/ unlucky season thus far. He has a good team to support him in Rabobank. 

Tyler Farrar


A talented sprinter, whose career thus far, as many of his generations have been, has been overshadowed by Cav's dominance. Has won in this race before, and has stages in all the GT's. On his day he is very good, but not quite as good as Cav. Has had a unmemorable season so far, with no wins and a lacklustre classics season, despite this being a goal. However, may come good in the Giro.

Matt Goss 

A very talented young Australian sprinter, who already has won Milan-Sanremo, amongst a number of other victories including a stage in the 2010 Giro. Indeed, he is the one sprinter that Cavendish is concerned about and he has one hell of an acceleration. In Orica-GreenEDGE he has decent team to support him, with the big aim of winning stages. Has had a low key season so far, but has shown good form recently winning the points jersey in the Tour of Turkey. 

Francesco Chicchi

Chicchi has had a number of decent results this season, and is a decent mid level sprinter. Is Italian, so he will be very motivated to succeed and he is not likely to be chosen for the TDF, he could be a possible contender for the red jersey. 

Sacha Modolo/ Andrea Guardini

I am grouping these two together due to their similarity. Both are talented young Italians riding for Italian Pro-Continental teams, who have had good seasons with a number of wins. Both will be very motivated and are still developing. 

Thor Hushovd

He was a very good sprinter with two TDF green jerseys to his name. However, as he has got older he has lost some of this punch and he has had a fairly awful season thus far. 

Juan José Haedo

Is a mid level sprinter, has only had 1 win this season. He has had a number of good results in the past. He will be in the mix.

               

Big Stages (ones to watch)

For the Brits among you, the sprint stages, will be worth a view due to Cavendish's presence. These are stages 2,3, 5(ish), 6 (ish), 9, 11 (ish), 13 and 18. The ish stages could go either way with a good possibilty of a sprint or a breakaway winning. In addition expect Geriant Thomas to do well in  stage 1, the prologue and team Sky to do well in stage 4 the team time trial.